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GME - EndGame part 4: The Saga Continues

GME - EndGame part 4: The Saga Continues
This is an extension of my DD series on GME. If you haven’t read them and have time, they will provide some background on my previous predictions, some of which have already come true. In this post, I’ll share my thoughts on what I think is going on, plus some tips to manage your positions and exits.
TL;DR: Shorts are in but likely want to get out. And they want to get out at the best price possible. See tips for managing positions.

Previous Important Posts

  • EndGame Part 1 (DTC Infinity) covered the short positions, the float, and potential snowball impacts of increasing prices, and argued that part of the reason that shorts haven’t closed was that it was pretty much impossible for shorts to close
  • EndGame Part 2 covered Cohen, fair market cap analysis, and potential investors, in which I talked about the amazing mid-to-long term potential for GME.
  • HEY SEC, if you’re reading please read this one - After the Citron tweet, I shared this fan fiction on what looked like blatant market manipulation by shorts on the day of the tweet, and offered some education on strengthening your position. This one got buried and is worth reading.
  • EndGame Part 3 covered the gamma squeeze, potential shady tactics by MMs, and some tips for staying safe.

What’s happening with the price?

We’re still gamma squeezing

Many media outlets are reporting this as a “short squeeze”. They’re only partially right, as if Melvin isn’t lying they’ve already been squeezed out.
However, the reality is so far we’ve been Gamma squeezing - repeatedly - and some shorts have been casualties along the way.
See this post for a deeper explanation, but the essence of it is that market-makers have to buy shares to hedge the calls they sell. The more calls people buy, the more shares they MMs have to hedge with. As I explained in part 1, GME has ultra low liquidity, i.e. there’s waaaay fewer actively traded shares than what shorts need to buy to cover with, and then when you get lots of people buying calls and shares in the hot new stock it just removes more availability from the market.
As a result, when MMs buy shares to hedge, it moves the price of the underlying up. Combine that with the buying pressure of people piling into a stock climbing 100% a day, shorts getting liquidated, and it’s a perfect storm.
Today, GME closed at $347 (before the after market selloff, but i’ll get to that soon).
320 calls were added yesterday. Similarly, when 115cs were added we squeezed to >115 in two days. Same story with 60c’s etc.
Remember this commentary from EndGame part 3 on Friday’s price action:
Notice how the stock dropped from a high of $75 on Friday to below 60 - the highest expiring SP for the 1/22 options, and stayed tight in range for the rest of the day. Now, for compliance reasons, MM are required to be neutral by EOD, so 20 minutes before close, MMs had to buy back all their short positions, which led to the strong close above 60.
All this led me to believe that the real fair market price for GME was above $65. Without the market makers interference, GME would have closed higher.
Now, what happened today? We opened at $351, more than double the previous close of $145 and after the morning profit taking, we squeezed to a high of $372 as MMs furiously tried to hedge the 320 calls they sold you the day before for peanuts.
See, the thing is, Kenny G doesn’t like to lose money. The magical method Citadel’s market makers make money, is that they sell you call giving you the right to buy shares at a certain price, say $320, for the nice price of $10/share (for example). Now, as long as Citadel’s MMs can buy all the shares they have to give to you for less than $320, that $10 is free money. However, when the underlying moves too fast, the MMs have to buy shares for more than $320, and Kenny G does not like that.
Today was a shock to the MMs that sold all the 320cs yesterday. A six-sigma event after a six-sigma event after a six-sigma event. Yet again, within days (a day?) of offering new, higher strikes - every call option ever sold was in the money, before they had a chance to adequately hedge.

https://preview.redd.it/cq5wy45433e61.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c75a1e1a6e3808b54bafc646e2e6a7f29ca7cc3
So, just as on Friday, if the price got too high above $320, market makers dug into their bag of tricks to start selling it off. (People taking profits here helped too.) However, multiple times, when GME went below $300, MMs took their opportunity to hedge the 1/29 calls. So, just as before, we traded in a tight range around the highest strike.
My conclusion from this action the first time was that GME’s fair price was being actively suppressed, and it proceeded to 5x in the next few days. There’s a possibility we’re in a replay and will see more upward movement on delta hedging alone.
The point of this is: I think shorts are feeling the squeeze, for sure, reporting massive mark-to-market losses. But I believe the shorts are still in.

Shorts are still in

As of Wednesday morning, Ortex was estimating a short interest of 65M shares, down from 71M shares the day before.

https://preview.redd.it/ze8wx15633e61.png?width=932&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a034dbb3c54509c6267f20c4122ecdf3f6cf4bc
If you’ve read my Part 1 (DTC Infinity), you’ll hopefully recall my thesis that there are actually less than 24M shares available, and therefore that it would be nigh impossible for shorts to close. Since then a slew of new investors have piled in to buy and hold GME, from little guys like us to big-ass-whales like Blackrock increasing their holdings to 13% of GME.
So what? I think the available shares for shorts to buy are down to under 20M, and they have to buy 65M shares to close. Shorts have barely begun to cover. We’ve only been increasing the cost of their exits!
Now, let’s talk about Melvin Capital. I loved watching Chamath defend retail investors and argue against the institutional leveraged shorting that got us here in the first place, but I also learned something interesting that helped me understand how the 140% short interest had in the first place, and how the unwinding may go.
At 2:10 Chamath saysGabe Plotkin is one of the giants of our era, but at the end of the day, what happens is that his trades are copied by umpteen other hedge funds that follow along
This tells me 2 things:
  • A lot of hedge funds (likely Maplelane, D1, Viking, Point72, and more) followed each other into this short. Much like retards like us get behind good DD shared in the open, these institutional retards got together with their cigars and golf clubs behind closed doors and decided together to go in together against GME.
  • If Melvin is really out, it’s unlikely the other funds are going to want to stay in, lest they be compared poorly to Melvin if GME continues to go against them. The other shorts want out.
Chamath also tells us that prime brokers (the brokers that hedge funds use) are seeing “the biggest 4-day degrossing from hedge funds they’ve ever seen”.
Again, the problem is - there just aren’t enough shares. Shorts have dug themselves a massive grave by shorting more shares in existence and continuing to short while Cohen grabbed up 9M shares, institutions added to their positions, and retail traders piled in.
For boomers like this tard that can’t understand why the price is so high - go back to Econ 101, supply and demand bitch.

It’s costing shorts incredible $ to hold their positions

Here’s all the ways shorts are losing money.
  • They pay borrow fees to loan the stock. At one point today, the GME stock borrow fee hit 250% for new borrows. At $300/share that’s $2/day. That doesn’t sound like much right? What if you shorted at $50?
  • The short position on GME has ballooned to $25BN from a low of $1B. The borrow fees are applied to the latest closing price, not the price you shorted at.
  • Funds are paying interest fees on the margin they are using for the short
  • And oh yeah, GME’s up like 800% in 5 days.

Dirty tactics continue

At this point, I think “THEY” have figured out that gamma squeezes are absolutely destroying hedge funds. So what do they do?
  • THE BIGGEST DIRTIEST TACTIC OF ALL - they only allow you to sell, not buy. HEY SEC, WHY ARE SHORTS STILL ALLOWED TO SHORT WHEN LONGS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO BUY. WHY ARE INSTITUTIONS ALLOWED TO COLLUDE?
    • This is insane. Funds, prime brokerages, and market makers all stood to lose money so they disabled trading of GME due to "volatility". Citadel invests in Melvin capital. Then brokerages shut down buying!
  • Brokerages down
  • Options not loading
  • Restrict retail trading on GME
    • I’m seeing reports that retail buyers not allowed to hold more than 100 GME options now
https://preview.redd.it/is4qn8n733e61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=741f80fc182e27584954691ebb581ffee15f86ef
  • This is a direct defense against more gamma squeezes and an attack on retail investors, giving institutions a distinct advantage.
  • HEY Shortsellers Enrichment Corporation - how is it ok for Citron to buy thousands of puts minutes before their tweet and how is it ok for prime brokers to give hedge funds 10-100x leverage, but the little guys can’t have more than 100 options total?
    • Personally, I don’t really do 100s of options all at once but now I really want to. Fuck this.
  • More short ladder attacks. Look at after-hours trading on GME - a rapid short ladder attack during low-volume trading in order to bring the price down.
  • If you use stop losses on GME and leave them on, you will get stop-loss hunted.

Ripple effects of the squeeze
  • These hedge funds that are short GME, are also short other equities like BBBY, AMC, etc.
  • These hedge funds are also long other shares with leverage, so the ONLY way they’re staying alive and not covering their shorts, is that they’re reducing their long leverage. This means selloffs in the broader market as they have to shore up their margin requirements against the massive short squeezes in their portfolios.

I believe we’re at a tipping point

  • I don’t believe shorts have really covered yet. They have defended by getting capital infusions and reducing their long leverage. I.e. they have begun liquidating long positions.
  • If GME climbs more, they will be forced to cover and liquidate.

Things to be careful about

As you can see, this is no easy win. In addition to the suggestions I wrote about in this post, here’s some things to be careful about.
  • There are threats to halt trading. Shares are safe, they do not expire. Calls can be destroyed by tactics like buying halts.
  • Be careful about swapping ITM calls for OTM calls: it can be tempting to trade-up your options for higher return, but be mindful of the delta impact. You may actually be driving the sale of shares by MMs when you don’t mean to. For example, if you sell a .5 delta call for 2 .2 delta calls, that’s net reduction of 10 shares that MMs have to hold long as leverage.
  • Be careful about being short any calls this week: Not only do you limit your upside (which is dumb in the prospect of a squeeze), you could end up in a nightmare scenario. A call that ends OTM on Friday could end up ITM after hours if you didn’t sell it, and you may get assigned while the underlying continues to go up. Close spreads if your short legs are deep ITM unless you want to risk early assignment and high hard-to-borrow fees.
  • There are a few other dirty tactics shorts can play. I’m not specifically going to share them here because I don’t want to give the ideas circulation, but
    • Choose your own limit sells based on personal sell points. Don’t copy others and don’t try to be memey. Make your own decisions.
    • Stop sharing your positions publicly. I know this is anti-wsb, and I think sharing them is great for this community, but in the case of GME it’s an attack vector for you.
  • Be careful of holding weeklies until expiration. Remember the multiple trading halts? What if trading gets halted on Friday at 2pm and doesn’t resume for the rest of the day? All your 1/29 calls would expire worthless. Depending on your broker and your cash positions, maybe even your ITM ones. Roll (or sell, if you’re taking profits) your weeklies well before expiration.
  • Be careful about buying on margin. Brokers are rapidly increasing margins. If you bought on margin with 2:1 leverage, and the stock went up 100%, you’d be in margin call even without a margin change. If the broker moves margin against you, you’ll get to margin call faster.
  • Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I’ve been in GME long enough to know that just when you think going up is a sure thing (remember last Monday with the short sale restriction?), you can be surprised by a new trick. If you bet it all on weeklies all at once, you may not be able to recover from being wrong on the timing. Consider longer expiry or spreading your purchases out. I’ve held through multiple 30-40% drawdowns in the underlying; and held through a 50% drawdown today, so you need to be ready for the volatility.
  • Watch out for stop loss hunts. It’s common practice for shorts to hunt for stop losses for cheap shares. If you’ve set a stop loss, be really sure about it.
  • Don’t sell on dips. You’re only helping the shorts. If you need to sell to take profits, sell when it’s heading up. Sell high, not low retards.
  • Save dry powder to buy on dips. Dips manufactured by shorts are buying opportunities. Take advantage of folks with paper hands to capture shares at low points. GME has incredible daily volatility. Set a low limit buy and just wait for the order to fill. Have patience when buying.
This is not financial advice; do your own DD. I’m holding over $1M in shares and calls. I AM NOT SELLING WHEN THE BUYING MARKET HAS BEEN REMOVED. YOU ARE BOUND TO NOT GET A FAIR MARKET PRICE.
Update New ortex data shows 51M short interest. So the covering has begun.
Update 2: what you are seeing in the price drops is likely the gamma squeeze in reverse. People are rightly selling their short term calls, so MMs are selling shares they bought to hedge. That drives the price down, which then causes more de-hedging. This is all a manufactured selloff by elimination of ability of people to buy the equity and should absolutely be investigated. It's very likely the big boys knew the buying restriction was coming and started the selloff last night.
Update 3: getting angrier by the minute. Reviewing the volume and price action and shorts bought in volume at the absolute bottom. This mothefucker, Steve Cohen, who bailed out Melvin and previously accused of insider trading is now GLOATING after this blatant trick https://twitter.com/StevenACohen2/status/1354864321134735360?s=09
submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Know Thy Enemy: Kenneth C. Griffin, the Barbarian Behind the Gates of the Citadel

Привет идиоты,
I have returned to inflict more psychic damage upon you about the sick fucks that make up the worldwide disease that is Big Capital. Today, I would like to talk to you about Kenneth Cordele Griffin, the founder and CEO of a little company called Citadel LLC.
Now unless you have been living under a fucking rock for the past week or have drank yourself to the point of amnesia for one reason or another (forgivable), you are probably by now at least vaguely aware of what Citadel does and how it relates to current events surrounding GameStop and WSB's new favorite hedge fund, Melvin Capital.
Seeing as how there's a few million more of you here now than there were last month when I was emptying the contents of the bowl of oatmeal that is my brain on these pages about present day financial crimes perpetrated by Citadel and their ilk and the ouroboros of Western intelligence agencies and Big Capital, let's do a quick recap. I do hope you take the time to read the full posts, because you may learn something interesting. PSTH = Stripe 🚀🚀🚀
  1. The markets and the flow of capital around the world are rife with financial crime.
  2. The vast majority of this crime is perpetrated by large institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Deutsche Bank. Some of this crime takes the form of laundering money for drug cartels, terrorists, pedophiles, and sex traffickers. Some of it involves manipulation of the markets.
  3. The regulators in charge of dealing with these fucks are utterly spineless, to the point that any honest person must wonder out loud if they're in on it and getting a take. This phenomenon is known as regulatory capture and is a particularly insidious form of political corruption.
  4. The CIA, since its inception in 1947, has acted as a sort of parallel government within the broader United States government, and has been the primary ideological engine of its foreign policy through its ties to Big Capital. That foreign policy has always kept the interests of business as its top priority. One might even call this the Deep State.

Who is Ken Griffin?

Ken Griffin is the absolute epitome of the archetypal scumfuck egomaniac asshole that embodies everything that is wrong with the ultra-rich class of Big Capital. Ahem, sorry. Let's try that again.
Ken Griffin started his career out as a 🌈🐻 at the age of 19 while an undergraduate at Harvard, shorting the convertible bonds market and making a bunch of money off of the October 19th, 1987 crash, more commonly known as Black Monday. He graduated in 1989, supposedly returned 70% in his first year as a professional fund manager, and went on to found Citadel in 1990. Citadel has swelled to gargantuan size in the last 30 years. It apparently almost went under in 2008 during the financial crisis, but they were fine after the empty suit known as Barack Obama reneged on his campaign promises and fully sealed the transfer of the United States to Wall Street and the rest of the 1%. The hedge fund managed $35 billion as of October 2020 (probably less now LOLOLOL) and a little more than a quarter of all equity volume flows through Citadel Securities in their capacity as a market maker.
He lives in Chicago, but that's not very important. I will note that Chicago has been a historically CIA rat-infested city, as evidenced by the group of University of Chicago-trained economists that helped carry out the regime change ops and aggressive neoliberalization of South America in the 20th century. He's not a complete political partisan, but he does tend to favor Republicans. He has donated to Democratic Party luminaries like Rod Blagojevich and Rahm Emanuel, libertarian psychopaths like the Koch Brothers, and neocon war hawk freaks like Karl "Turd Blossom" Rove. His most recent political contributions were to Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, the two imbecilic former Senators from Georgia who were both busted for dumping stocks on insider information shortly before the Great Beer Virus Crash of 2020. The thread tying these fine folks together is that what most people in the United States think of as politics is more akin to a game show than a real system of governance, and the ultra-rich value their class allegiance much higher than their allegiance to any one political party. As a slight aside, Loeffler's husband is the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. How in the fuck is the spouse of a (formerly) sitting Senator allowed to hold that position? Yuck.

The Ken Griffin Real Estate Portfolio

(Disclaimer: Griffin may not still own every property in this section and I don't care to find out which, if any, he has divested himself from, because frankly, the levels of opulence make me feel fucking sick. Also, if this is considered d0xxing or something because some of these may be personal residences, I will remove them upon request. This is all publicly available information, though.)

The Ken Griffin Art Portfolio

Many of the pieces listed here are not held personally by Griffin, but are loaned out to institutions like the Museum of Modern Art in New York and the Art Institute of Chicago. For the extreme smoothbrains among you, the reason Griffin blows giant bags on horrible pieces of art and puts them on public display is so that he can use them as tax writeoffs.
Herein lies the part where you may call me a conspiracy theorist if you please, but I think Griffin's art portfolio is indicative of some type of covert relationship with the intelligence agencies. I sincerely do not believe that any person can reach these strata of society without at least brushing elbows with some glowies. The most expensive pieces in his collection come from the school of art known as abstract expressionism, which was quite literally a CIA-sponsored project meant to counter the influence of Soviet realism during the Cold War. The idea was that the Soviets would see the wacky vomitus that people like Jackson Pollock would spew all over a canvas as an expression of the ideals of freedom and individuality and break free of the bonds of Communism.

How does Citadel spend its money?

Good question! They buy politicians. Remember regulatory capture? Here's Citadel doing just that: current Secretary of the Treasury, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, and sentient potato woman Janet Yellen took more than $800,000 in speaking fees from Citadel. In fact, Yellen "earned" over $7 million in speaking fees from various other financial institutions including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup between her stints at the Fed and at Treasury. What do we think? Is she just such an enrapturing speaker that she's worth every penny? Or is she getting a kickback for helping to deregulate financial markets and a bribe to look the other way when short sellers and market makers collude to shut retail traders out of the market en masse, like they did yesterday with GME?
They also buy stakes in distressed hedge funds, apparently. Remember the $2.75 billion bailout that Citadel and Point72 gave to Melvin Capital on Monday, which they promptly pissed away doubling down on their GME short? Isn't it weird that Robinhood shut down trading on the very stocks that the hedge funds were bleeding out from and then forced people to liquidate their long positions at the very bottom of a coordinated short seller attack? Doesn't it seem a little strange that the hedge fund branch of Citadel is allowed to own part of another hedge fund that's being bled dry, as Citadel Securities buys order flow from Robinhood to illegally front-run retail orders?
There's also this, on the topic of Melvin Capital and pedophiles and sex traffickers: Melvin Capital's 5th largest long holding is a company called L Brands, which is the parent of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works. Victoria's Secret, as seasoned Jeffrey Epstein gumshoes will know, was founded by one Leslie Wexner, who had a very troubling relationship with Epstein. Epstein was Wexner's personal money manager and Wexner was Epstein's only known client. Wexner and Epstein were so close that Wexner gave Epstein a mansion on the Upper East Side in Manhattan in 2011, years after it was already known that he was a pedophile creep. Epstein would tell the girls he was sexually assaulting that he was a modeling scout for Victoria's Secret. Jean-Luc Brunel, another Epstein-associated "modeling scout" and sex criminal who was recently arrested in France, would supply models to Victoria's Secret through his agency MC2 Model Management. Basically, what I'm saying is that Melvin Capital, and now Citadel by extension, are long sex trafficking pedophiles.

How can I poke this asshole in the eye?

It seems like there's two big things you can do to do your part.
The first is to 💎👐 GME. The institutions are clearly scared shitless at how much blowback is coming their way or they wouldn't be taking such drastic measures to try to tip the scales in the favor of the shorts at the expense of everyone else. Turn off share lending in your brokerage if you can and still haven't.
The second is to transfer your assets out of Robinhood yesterday and graduate to a big boy brokerage. Citadel Securities (remember, this is the market maker, not the hedge fund) banked a record $6.7 billion in profit last year. You can bet that this has at least a little to do with the influx of Robinhooders pressing the market order button on their phones and letting Citadel front run their orders while Robinhood gives them a garbage fill.

TLDR: Ken Griffin final boss. Citadel bad. Robinhood bad. GME go up. Stop FOMOing into other dumb shit and stick to the plan.

submitted by 420redditpornacct69 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Army of Spies DApp Project on Cardano

Hi Everybody, [Long post ahead. So read at your own peril. tl;dr for the project below.]
We are the people behind the Army of Spies DApp proposal currently in Catalyst Fund 3. We're longtime Cardano super fanatics. We're hoping that we're going to get really good feedback on our project in Catalyst. But, we also want to reach out to the rest of the Cardano Community who might not be actively perusing the projects in the Catalyst Fund 3. Mods, please let me know if this somehow shouldn't be posted here. Anyway, I'm going to post our proposal and plan below. We would love any and all feedback that anyone could provide. Obviously, there are monetary grants involved in Catalyst. But, we are actually just as excited for our little project just to see the light of day after working on it for so long. Our first draft of the whitepaper for this project was way back in Early 2018. We've put a ton of thought and effort into it since then including many drafts of the smart contract which is currently in Marlowe. We are slowly learning as we go. We also know our little project has a long way still to progress. So, we'd love any and all feedback if people here would be willing to give it a look. Obviously, we're editing this and making changes as we go. So this is all subject to change and revision.
Army of Spies
“...but at the length truth will out.”
William Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice
tl;dr
Army of Spies is a Cardano based non-fungible native token product that creates a compensated “Curator” role in a smart contract powered marketplace that brokers obscure, or difficult to acquire, information. Blockchain derived finality and permanence of Curator role ownership will drive decentralized market growth via the efforts of each newly minted Curator. Army of Spies ultimately serves a public good as a decentralized public blockchain-based approach to the efficient allocation of information resources and erasure of non-mandatory information asymmetries powered by crowdsourced and bounty-based information discovery. The obscure, or difficult to acquire, information addressed by Army of Spies typically falls outside the reach of traditional blockchain oracle providers.
Table of Contents
  1. Philosophy & Use Case
  2. The Army of Spies User Experience
  3. Under the Hood of Army of Spies
  4. Marketing Strategies
  5. Securities Law Compliance Strategies
  6. Founder Team
  7. 2018-2025 Roadmap
Philosophy & Use Case
Our modern world, albeit drastically transformed by the internet over the last decades, is still a world of secrets and information asymmetry. Some secrets are necessary. Some are not. Among the unnecessary secrets are three broad categories of obscure or difficult to acquire information (“ODAI”): 1) information that someone doesn’t want revealed but has no legal or ethical right to protect, 2) mundane information that has value but is difficult to acquire, and 3) information that may hold an idiosyncratic value to one person but may still be inconvenient to acquire. These types of ODAI typically fall outside the grasp of traditional blockchain oracle providers. Let’s first describe these three categories of ODAI.
1) Information Someone Doesn’t Want Revealed
You don’t need to know the launch codes to the nuclear weapon arsenal of your favorite superpower. But, you do need to know if your elected officials are taking bribes from foreign corporate interests. It’s probably not okay for you to have the gate code to Taylor Swift’s estate. But, it’s probably okay for you to know the real identity of the land developer secretly buying up all the parcels of land on the same block as the corner store owned by your family. Some secrets are necessary. But, information is a valuable resource and its efficient allocation is generally a net positive for the progress of a technologically based society. In the case of those bits of information that are not mandatory secrets, the hidden hand of the market should guide disclosure. The whistleblower should be rewarded for telling the world that the politician is corrupt, and watchdog groups will gladly raise funds to secure the disclosure of that information. Someone who sees Kit Harington with long hair on the streets of London should be able to accept a reward for that information from a Game of Thrones superfan on the other side of the world. The shop owner should be able to ask if anyone can identify the looter on his security cameras who stole the inventory that cost his or her life savings. The peaceful side lines protester should be able to ask if anyone can identify the person who permanently blinded her with a traffic cone recklessly thrown at her head. A small time merchant should have a means to discover if the real buyer behind the strawman offer they just received was actually from their biggest competitor or from a random individual.
2) Mundane Information that is Difficult to Acquire
There are also less sensational more day-to-day categories of mundane information that might be valuable but difficult, costly, or inconvenient to acquire in isolation: you might want to know how long the line is at your favorite bar on Friday night at 10pm, but it might not be convenient to drive all the way downtown to find out. You might want to know if there are a lot of girls or guys at the bar, but you might know that you can’t trust the hostess on the other end of the phone line when you call the bar. You might be willing to pay a small fee to know exactly what size fly professional fishing guides are using on a trout stream near your hotel, but you might be unwilling to pay for a day of guiding that would normally be the entry point for that disclosure. The purchaser of a vintage motorcycle should be able to find out the old-timer secrets about what brand and type of modern oil contains the right additives for his engine without spending days combing through old Reddit posts. You might really need to know how much it costs to hire an experienced cardano smart contract developer. But, you might realize that you can’t trust the answers you get on Reddit.
3) Information that holds Ideosyncratic Value and is Simultaneously Inconvenient to Acquire
There might also be information that is only valuable to you but still inconvenient to acquire. You might want to know if your significant other is really at the gym with his friends or at the bar by his office with that one woman he works with. It might be valuable to understand if the cute barista who works at your local Starbucks on Monday mornings flirts with everyone to feed the tip jar or if she is actually just after you.
For a small reward, any intrepid bar goer will gladly shoot you a pic or video of the line out front, the crowd inside, or of your significant other in the corner with his beautiful coworker. The college student who lives a block away will gladly go see if your significant other’s car is parked in front of the apartment of a female “friend” for a small bounty. The trout guide can make a few quick bucks by disclosing what size of fly to use, and you can get that isolated bit of information without buying a whole day of guiding. Someone who has owned your make and model of vintage motorcycle for decades will gladly give up their favorite oil for a few bucks. Someone who recently had their family’s property purchased by a certain land developer will happily tell you how much the land developer paid per acre if there is compensation for that information.
Would this level of availability of information be a tidal shift for modern society? Maybe. Is it probably inevitable over a long enough timeline given that there is a hi def video camera in every pocket? Yes. In the future, there will be no more secrets. You WON’T be able to park in front of your mistress’s house anymore. But, you WILL be able to get verifiable insider information on how much that land developer is really willing to pay your family. We’ll all just have to adjust our behavior to conform to a world with greater transparency. The only question is how we manage and allocate that information discovery and transparency. Army of Spies is a project aimed squarely at efficient market based allocation of information resources via the creation of a decentralized public blockchain-based global marketplace for information transactions. Army of Spies will not aim to facilitate any information transactions that might constitute, encourage, or aid criminal activity, illegal political espionage, illegal corporate espionage, or any other information transaction deemed illegal by U.S or European authorities. But, Army of Spies does aim to facilitate the erasure of non-mandatory information asymmetries.
Why Can’t Traditional Blockchain Oracles Provide ODAI Efficiently?
Oracle providers in the blockchain space have created wonderful projects like Chainlink and Ergo to provide a bridge between real world data and the blockchain world. However, these Oracle solutions are more appropriate for reaching readily available public information such as crypto prices, the weather, and who won the latest sporting event. When it comes to ODAI, there may only be a handful of people in the world with access to the ODAI. How many people have caught fish on your favorite stretch of your favorite river in the last few weeks since the temperature changed and know exactly what fly to use? How many people are in that club right now where you think your significant other is hanging out with their ex? How many people hold information about exactly which modern oil will not hurt the engine of your particular make and model of vintage motorcycle over the course of 100k miles? It also isn’t predictable who will hold ODAI and be able to provide it at the right time and how long it will take to identify someone who does have the ODAI.
Oracles and oracle pools can be easily constructed and operate efficiently where it is predictable where information will reside. An oracle who will provide data about who won the MMA fight on Saturday night can be easily identified ahead of time and incentivized to provide that answer. However, the ultimate best provider of ODAI is often comparatively unpredictable and is best identified through a highly decentralized bounty and curation model as used in Army of Spies. Being a traditional blockchain Oracle is a job undertaken as a routinized future information processing task. The provider of ODAI just happens to already have that information or just happens to be in a position to acquire it more easily than others. The magic of Army of Spies lies in efficiently creating an exchange of value between that person and someone willing to pay for the ODAI and curating possible multiple competing sources of that ODAI.
Why does Army of Spies Require Crypto?
Army of Spies is a crypto-mandatory project in that erasure of information asymmetry can only be carried out via a broadly decentralized system. This manifests itself in three broad themes.
1) Lack of centralized data storage is vital to avoidance of death by regulation. Parties seeking erasure of information asymmetry of any kind may easily find themselves in an adversarial relationship with state actors wielding the regulatory hammer. Such parties ultimately live under threat of seizure and shut down of their centralized data storage and processing. Just as cryptocurrency has only survived regulatory fatality via decentralization, so shall Army of Spies.
2) User confidence in Army of Spies is only be possible where there is no centralized data to be discovered by adverse parties. Private entities holding user data are regularly subpoened for such data by state actors. Centralized user data storage is also subject to the illicit acquisition of user data by bad actors through security exploits. In our modern litigious society, users also face completely legal discovery of their data via litigation by other private parties. Centralized servers are especially vulnerable to all three of these threats to user data. These combined weaknesses of centralized data storage mean that a system for transactions in obscure information can only operate efficiently on a decentralized basis.
3) Finally, adoption of the platform will not take hold if there is a chance the financial side of the information transaction could be reversed once the info is already conveyed. You can’t take back info you have already delivered to someone’s brain if they cancel their payment for that info after delivery. Immutability is king in transactions that remove information asymmetries. There needs to be a guarantee that the compensation will be delivered once the information is revealed.
The Army of Spies User Experience
Let’s get into the gritty details of how Army of Spies will actually work from the user perspective.
The Intel
As a user, you will decide that you want to know a secret (the “Intel”). This secret might be what size caddis fly you should use to catch brown trout on the Weber River this weekend, if your significant other is working or with his or her ex, or what type of modern oil you should really use in your vintage motorcycle.
The Intel Bounty
You will also decide how much that secret is worth to you. This amount (the “Intel Bounty”) is the sum that will go to the person providing you with the answer to your question. You will go to the Army of Spies website (www.armyofspies.net) which will list all the different topical categories under which your secret might fall (the “Intel Categories”). You will select the most appropriate Intel Category for seeking the Intel.
In eventual iterations of the website there may also be information listed about the particular curator (the “Curator”) of that Intel Category. There could be ratings and reviews of that Curator along with the number of successful Intel Bounties the Curator has completed, how quickly they are completed on average, and the average size in USD or ADA of the Intel Bounties completed by that Curator.
Once you have selected your preference as to a particular Intel Category, you will click on a link to navigate to the forum set up by the Curator for that Intel Category. You will be the person creating this particular Intel Bounty (the “Bounty Maker”). The forum setup by the Curator of the chosen Intel Category (the “Curation Forum”) will display the address of the smart contract (the “Smart Contract”) related to that Intel Category and Curator. You will send your Intel Bounty there in the chosen amount of ADA. You will then post your description of the Intel you are seeking (the “Intel Request”), the amount of the Intel Bounty you sent to the Smart Contract, and the ADA address from which you sent the Intel Bounty (for matching purposes). The Curator of that Intel Category will then confirm (using the ADA address you posted) that the stated Intel Bounty has actually been sent to the Smart Contract. This is where the Intel Source begins their work.
The Intel Source
Someone who knows the secret you are trying to uncover (an “Intel Source”) will then see your Intel Request and the Intel Bounty offered in the Curator’s Forum. The Intel Source will then post their proposed response to the Intel (the “Proposed Intel Response”) along with their ADA address. Their Proposed Intel Response and your Intel Request, will always be visible to everyone. There might also be other Proposed Intel Responses provided by other Intel Sources and they will also be visible to everyone. Not creating an “only the Bounty Maker can see the answers” architecture is intentional and probably key to adoption. New users will want to see the quality of Intel being provided before committing to pay a bounty for Intel in the same Intel Category.
The Curation Bounty
The Curator will be the ultimate judge and jury of which Intel Source wins the Intel Bounty (the “Winning Intel Source”). The Curator will also receive a share of the Intel Bounty (the “Curation Bounty”) equal to 10% of the Intel Bounty. The Curator will also act as moderator of the Curation Forum. The Curator will decide how long the Intel Bounty remains open and how many Intel Sources will be allowed to provide Proposed Intel Responses. The Curator will be able to promote his or her particular Curation Forum in whatever manner they wish. The Curator will also be strongly incentivized to provide a good experience to both Bounty Makers and Intel Sources alike since both will, in eventual iterations of the Army of Spies website, be able to review and rate the Curator for other Bounty Makers and Intel Sources to see. This same rating and review system will create a large disincentive for Curators to wrongly award Intel Bounties to undeserving Intel Sources or strawman sock puppet Intel Sources. This will discourage both dishonest curation and negligent curation by Curators. If either is happening, reviews and ratings will be negative and Bounty Makers and Intel Sources will just go to similar topical categories with better curation.
How Does One Become a Curator?
The Army of Spies website will sell non-fungible Cardano based tokens (“Curator NFTs”) corresponding to each Intel Category. The holder of the Curator NFT for each Intel Category will officially be the Curator of that Intel Category. The Smart Contract for each Intel Category will reference the Curator as whoever controls the address currently holding the relevant Curator NFT. So, the Curator position for each Intel Category will be easily transferable with the disposition of the relevant Curator NFT. Anyone seeking to buy a Curator NFT will simply search the Intel Category catalogue on the Army of Spies website. If the proposed Intel Category is not already taken or filtered as illegal by Army of Spies, the prospective Curator will be able to buy the desired Curator NFT. In the minimum viable product version of Army of Spies this will likely be done by contacting Army of Spies through the Army of Spies website and sending the prescribed amount of ADA for that Intel Category. In later iterations of Army of Spies, it is hoped that a more decentralized Smart Contract based purchase method will be developed.
The Intel Category corresponding to the Curator NFT will be strictly defined by the exact letters and numbers chosen by the prospective Curator as the name for the Intel Category. One person might choose to establish an Intel Category for “Tamarindo, Costa Rica Land Developers” while another might choose to establish an Intel Category for “Land Developers in Tamarindo, Costa Rica”. Both Intel Categories will be allowed and will correspond to different Curator NFTs that may be held by entirely different Curators. Both Intel Categories will appear in the list of topical categories on the Army of Spies website.
Upon purchase, the holder of the newly minted Curator NFT will be able to direct the link for that Intel Category to the Curation Forum setup by that particular Curator. Curators may choose to setup any type of forum they choose. This may be their own Subreddit, a self-hosted forum on a stand-alone website, or any other forum of their choice. It would be easy enough for Army of Spies to run centralized forums hosted on a controlled server. But, this would create a single centralized choke point that could be shut off by regulators and destroy the decentralized resilience of Army of Spies. Curators will also be able to promote their Curation Forum in any manner they want.
The Bounty to the Winning Intel Source
The Winning Intel Source would, of course, receive the remainder of the Intel Bounty which would be the Intel Bounty minus the Curation Bounty (i.e. 90% of the Intel Bounty).
Credentials and Evidence
Intel Sources may choose to bolster the strength of their Proposed Intel Response by providing evidence of credentials that would establish the veracity of their Proposed Intel Response. These credentials could be proof of education (e.g. here’s my diploma supporting that I’m an entomologist who knows what size flies are actually on the river right now), proof of expertise (e.g. here’s my Facebook account proving I’m a fishing guide who works on the Weber River every summer), or proof of experience (e.g. I’m not an expert on fishing but here’s a VLOG I did yesterday while catching a fish on the Weber River) .
In some cases, it may be more appropriate for Intel Sources to provide direct evidence of the Proposed Intel Response instead of credential based support for their answer. For example, the Bounty Maker who wants to know if her significant other is hanging out with his ex in a certain bar would probably happily accept a photo or video of her significant other furnished by an Intel Source. Likewise, the Bounty Maker who wants to know the length of the line in front of Bar X right now would probably prefer a video of the Intel Source in front of that line providing some proof of date and time as opposed to any Intel Source’s credentials as a bar line expert.
Credential and Evidence Challenges
In some cases, Curators may also wish to challenge the validity of any credentials offered by Intel Sources (e.g. that is not really your facebook account because I know of that guy) or any evidence furnished by the Intel Source (e.g. that wasn’t the line in front of Bar X tonight...that was Tuesday night...I know because the sign says 99 cent tacos and their website says that only happens on Tuesdays. Eventual iterations of Army of Spies, could even allow for Bounty Makers to offer an additional bounty (a “Credential Challenge Bounty”) for a Curator to disprove the credentials of an Intel Source.
Blacklisted Bounties
Army of Spies will not aim to facilitate any information transactions that might constitute, encourage, or aid criminal activity, terrorism, human rights violations, political espionage, or corporate espionage. To moderate these types of transactions in a decentralized system like Army of Spies, the Curator will have the ability to designate any Intel Bounty as a “Blacklisted Intel Bounty”. In such a case, the Intel Bounty will be returned to the Bounty Maker and the Intel Bounty and Bounty Maker will be moderated out of the Intel Category forum. If any Curator is refusing to designate illegal bounties as Blacklisted Intel Bounties, those elections will be reflected in the eventual ratings and reviews on the Army of Spies website and law abiding users will be able to avoid the topical categories controlled by such Curators.
Smart Contract & Curator NFT Architecture Considerations
At its core, Army of Spies will be run via Smart Contracts corresponding to each Intel Category. The initial intellectually tidy impulse would be to make every Intel Bounty its own smart contract. However, the rigor of constant automated Smart Contract generation for each new Intel Bounty in a distributed computing environment probably precludes such a scenario. Current thoughts revolve around a strategy of a single Smart Contract with inputs for each Intel Bounty creation and outputs for each Winning Intel Source and relevant Curator. Of course, this could create a significant “involuntary bug bounty” equivalent to the value of all Intel Bounties currently offered and residing in the smart contract. Initially, this risk can be mitigated by limiting the amount of any Intel Bounty to an amount of ADA equivalent to a low value such as $20. The Curator NFTs are planned to be created via the minting policy instructions laid out at:
https://developers.cardano.org/en/development-environments/native-tokens/how-to-use-multi-asset-tokens-in-the-cardano-node/.
Basic Adoption Strategy
The Army of Spies adoption strategy will be akin to that used by other NFT projects such as Unstoppable Domains and Decentraland. The buyers of the NFTs providing access to build on the ecosystem will also be the initial users of the assets built on the ecosystem. For example, a quick web search for news regarding Unstoppable Domains shows it has sold hundreds of thousands of NFTs corresponding to blockchain based domains in the last few years of its operations. Thousands of actual websites have been built on these domains. However, actual user demand to peruse these websites would probably be extremely scant if you didn’t count users who came into the ecosystem because they bought one of the NFTs corresponding to a domain or were considering it. People buy access to build on the ecosystem or at least to speculate on the NFT granting that right. Those same people then become the initial users of the things built on the ecosystem.
This could be seen of Decentraland on its initial launch as well. How many users were wondering around the Decentraland map on launch day who didn’t own some kind of NFT related to the project or weren’t at least taking a peek to decide if they should speculate on a LAND or an NFT based username or etc? We can only guess. But, probably not a gigantic percentage. The initial users were largely NFT owners or people deciding if they should buy an NFT related to the project. This usage of the project then drives more purchases of the various NFTs in the project (from hats, to usernames, to LANDS, to Estates) which then drives more usage which then drives more NFT purchases in a beautiful self-reinforcing cycle.
Army of Spies will be the same. Purchases of the Curator NFTs will be the spark that ignites the combustion that initially pushes the pistons. Whether purchasers are planning to build out an actual Curation Forum or just speculating on the NFT to sell it at a higher price down the road, those purchasers will likely also be the initial Bounty Makers and Intel Sources using Army of Spies.
To kick off this self-reinforcing cycle, Army of Spies could be marketed on an incremental grass roots basis by making simple organic explainer posts, one Subreddit at a time, in all types of topical Subreddits. These explainer posts would be tailored to each subreddit and describe how, for example, anyone in the “Porsche 911” subreddit could simply purchase the Curator NFT for “Porsche 911” and turn their interest and knowledge of the topic into a possible money making venture. Someone in the “Denver” subreddit might want to purchase the “LoDo Denver Bars” Curator NFT and curate bounties related to things happening in those bars.
Initial purchasers of the Curator NFTs will be making the acquisition as an investment in future access to the ecosystem. This future access characteristic of the purchase along with the decentralized ethos of the crypto space is likely to weigh in favor of an acceptance of the premise that Curators should host their own Curation Forums instead of some more centralized architecture.
Acceptance of this “do-it-yourself” approach is already exhibited by buyers of Decentraland Lands who would possibly have to build something on their lands and by Unstoppable Domains customers who would have to build out websites on top of their decentralized URLs. These purchasers are buying a piece of finite access to the ecosystem on a bet that the ecosystem will develop into something more or that someone will use that finite access to build something on that purchaser’s piece of the ecosystem. In the crypto/blockchain space these types of NFT products are actually a very attractive value proposition in that they present an already functioning consumer crypto product in an endless sea of thousands of blockchain coin products that only purport to one day serve as the rails on which functioning products would operate. Army of Spies will present the same value proposition in that a purchaser of a Curator NFT will be able to immediately set up their own forum and start trying to drive traffic there (in addition to whatever traffic they receive from the Army of Spies website) or they can simply hodl the Curator NFT until the ecosystem develops. You see many examples of both strategies with Decentraland “LANDS” NFT holders and Unstoppable Domain URL holders today.
The Army of Spies Smart Contract
Below is the Marlowe code for the current draft of the Army of Spies Smart Contract. This code can be viewed in a very visual Blockly format if dropped into the Marlowe Playground at https://alpha.marlowe.iohkdev.io/#/simulation.
When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Intel Bounty"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
)
[Bound 1 1000]
)
(When
[Case
(Deposit
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Curator Intel Source Selection"
(Role "Curator")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(If
(ValueEQ
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Curator Intel Source Selection"
(Role "Curator")
))
(Constant 1)
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Intel Source Claims Intel Bounty"
(Role "Intel Source")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(If
(ValueEQ
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Intel Source Claims Intel Bounty"
(Role "Intel Source")
))
(Constant 1)
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Confirm Intel Source Won"
(Role "Curator")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(If
(ValueEQ
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Confirm Intel Source Won"
(Role "Curator")
))
(Constant 1)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Account (Role "Intel Source"))
(Token "" "")
(Scale
(9%10)
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Curator"))
(Token "" "")
(Scale
(1%10)
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
)
Close
)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Account (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
3500
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
3000
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
2500
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
2000 Close
)]
1500 Close
)]
1000 Close
A Look Forward to a Potential Army of Spies 2.0
A Potential Future Army of Spies 2.0 with More Decentralized Curation within Topical Categories
The original vision for Army of Spies involved curation voting and curation staking by multiple curators even within a single Intel Category. Attempts were even made to model out this architecture in Marlowe. Eventually, the vision of the NFT Curator as detailed above won the day for Army of Spies 1.0. However, the original vision of curation voting and curation staking will be excerpted here for conceptual background on possible future deployment in an Army of Spies 2.0 evolution.
The Potential Army of Spies 2.0 Decentralized Curation Bounty & Curation Staking
In this model, there will be no NFT based curator, and other regular users perusing the forums (the “Curators”) will be allowed to vote on whether or not the intel provided is sufficient. Only an Intel Source receiving enough votes (a “Winning Intel Source”) will win his share of the Intel Bounty. The Curators will also receive a share of the Intel Bounty (the “Curation Bounty”) equal to 10% of the Intel Bounty for voting for the correct answer. To avoid the problem of straw man curators (i.e. an Intel Source creating a second, or third, or nth account to vote for his own intel even when it is obviously not sufficient to be the bounty winning intel), each Curator will be required to stake 1% of the Intel Bounty in order to vote (the “Curation Stake”). Curators who vote for an answer that does not get sufficient votes (the “Losing Curators”) will have their Curation Stake slashed. Curation Stake slashing will involve forfeiture of the Curation Stake and transfer of such stake to the Bounty Maker in majority with a small sliver going to AOS. Each Winning Curator will receive a share of the Curation Bounty equal to the Curation Bounty divided by the number of Winning Curators plus a return of their Curation Stake. In other words a Winning Curator can expect to receive a sum equal to the Intel Bounty divided by the number that is equal to the product of 10 multiplied by the number of Winning Curators. Such Winning Curator will also see a redemption of their Curation stake (which we have already defined above as 1% of the Intel Bounty). Let’s go back to our example of the fishing question and the 100 unit Intel Bounty. If there were five Winning Curators, the sum due to each Curator would be:
10 units/ 5 Winning Curators
= 2 units reward per Winning Curator
+ 1 unit as the return of their Curation Stake
= 3 units.
In order to further mitigate strawman curation, there will also be a second round of curation voting where no stake will be required. This second round will only happen when an Intel Source has already passed the first round. This round of curation voting will subject any strawman curators to the tyranny of the crowd. Here we will be leveraging outrage culture. If anything is true of the online landscape today, it is that people love to call other people out for breaking the rules. So, we will allow a larger number of people to vote in this second round and they will not be required to put up a stake to do so. In this “tyranny of the crowd round”, the voters will only be allowed to vote against the result obtained in the first round. Since the second round only happens if an Intel Source passes the first round, this means that in the second round, votes can only be cast against the particular Intel Source.
If dishonest curation is still occuring under this system, the Curation Stake could also always be increased until an optimum balance is struck between deterrence of dishonest curation and participation in curation.
So, in summary, curation voting will look like this:
  1. a first round of staked curation voting;
  2. if the Intel Source doesn’t receive sufficient votes in the first round, that Intel Source has lost and is out;
  3. if the Intel Source does receive sufficient votes in the first round, he or she progresses to the second round;
  4. this second “tyranny of the crowd” round will be unstaked and votes can only be cast AGAINST the particular Intel Source; and
  5. the Intel Source has reached the finish line and will collect the Intel Bounty if there are not sufficient votes against the Intel Source in the second round.
Army of Spies 2.0 Curation and Intel Provision Rankings
In order to further incentivise honest curation, the AOS platform could eventually also display the number of times any given Curator has been a Winning Curator along with the number of times that Curator has been a Losing Curator. Likewise, all Intel Sources will have a ranking showing how many times they have been a Winning Intel Source and the number of times they have been an Intel Source who did not get the highest number of curation votes (a “Losing Intel Source”). These rankings will be shown to other users giving curation votes so that they can take into account the credibility of the Intel Source and the other Curators voting for a particular Intel Source.
Army of Spies 2.0 Blacklisted Transactions Bounties
Army of Spies will not facilitate any information transactions that might constitute, encourage, or aid criminal activity, terrorism, human rights violations, political espionage, or corporate espionage. To moderate these types of transactions in a decentralized system like Army of Spies, there will have to be a bounty for identification of any “Blacklisted Intel Bounty” to incentivise Curators to flag such Intel Bounties. To avoid the strawman curator issue with such Blacklisted Intel Bounties (i.e. the Bounty Maker creating sock puppets to get an illegitimate Intel Bounty past the Blacklist Curation), the Curator who wins the bounty for flagging a Blacklisted Intel Bounty (a “Successful Blacklister”) will be randomly selected from the whole cohort of Curators who vote for the flagging of any particular Intel Bounty. The Blacklist Voting will also involve a “tyranny of the crowd” vote where an Intel Bounty that has passed the first round of BlackList voting can still be blacklisted by non-staking voters who can only vote against the Intel Bounty but not in favor of it passing. The Blacklisted Intel Bounty will be equivalent to a percentage of the Intel Bounty posted by the Bounty Maker. Another sliver of the Intel Bounty will also be forfeited to AOS. This will mean that the Bounty Maker would forfeit some or all of the offered bounty with no info in return. Flagging of Blacklisted Intel Bounties will require the normal Curation Stake of 1% of the Intel Bounty. The Curation Stake of Curators who attempt to dishonestly or inaccurately identify a Blacklisted Intel Bounty (i.e they voted to Blacklist but the group decided otherwise) would then go to the Bounty Maker with a sliver going to Army of Spies..
Proposed Utilization of Funds
Any funds awarded to Army of Spies in Project Catalyst Fund 3 will be used to procure the services of devolopers who can assist with smart contract development, the NFT minting policy, web development, and the overarching architecture connecting all the pieces. While the current team has been dabbling in Marlowe (and a tiny bit in Plutus) for the last few years, they would like to benefit from the expertise of someone close to IOHK or Emurgo or otherwise qualified to tell them what they are missing and help solve the inevitable problems that will be discovered. The Fortune 500 procurement experience of one of the current team members is expected to be very valuable in obtaining these services in a timely fashion and at prudent costs.
Roadmap
Milestone 1
-Refine Curator NFT Concept and Marlowe smart contract.
-Refine architecture for the interaction of the various roles with the Marlowe contract.
-Procure services of developers to fill any missing gaps between NFT minting policy, smart contract, and website.
Milestone 2
-Buildout AOS website with: 1) functionality for NFT Sales; 2) catalogue of topical categories; and 3) explainer and other marketing content.
-Begin Curator recruitment by using organic Subreddit by Subreddit posts.
Milestone 3
-Slowly bootstrap adoption by focusing on Curator recruitment, one subreddit at a time.
-Market directly in any and all suitable subreddits for potential Curators matching that topical interest category.
submitted by ArmyofSpies to cardano [link] [comments]

What's in store for European tech and startups in 2021? Sifted EU's startup predictions

What's in store for European tech and startups in 2021? Sifted EU's startup predictions

https://preview.redd.it/uek6lhybme961.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89644f67f642bf3b9f44d08e8a0f51a9e8144579
This time last year, Sifted compiled at least some pretty accurate predictions for 2020. Our columnist Nicolas Colin said it was going to be the year of remote working, which he was definitely right about (albeit it not exactly for the reasons he said). Philippe Collombel, general partner at Partech, said it was going to be the “year of economic crisis” which hit the nail on the head.
Admittedly, not everyone was spot on. Jean de La Rochebrochard, partner at Kima Ventures, said it was going to be the year when travel tech beat fintech (the pandemic put a stop to that). Gabriela Hersham, cofounder and chief executive of coworking space Huckletree, said it was going to be the “year of community coworking”.
So after that mixed bag, and an uncertain 12 months ahead, what predictions can we make for 2021? Well, here is our effort from the Sifted team of reporters.

European startups will raise a record $50bn

Back in 2016 European tech startups raised just $16bn in funding from global venture capital firms. Last year European startups, in the midst of a global pandemic, raised a record $41bn. This is an annual growth rate of 30% over 5 years and confirms what we already know: the European startup ecosystem is booming in a way that has never been seen before.
So it’s not unreasonable to think that startup funding will hit $50bn next year for a few reasons. Firstly, global monetary policy remains super-lax and so there is heaps of money sloshing around, particularly from the US where startup valuations are much higher and investors are coming to Europe looking for a deal. Secondly, there is dry powder from 2020 waiting to be unleashed once the economy starts to recover.
Thirdly, and probably most importantly, the flywheel of European tech and startups is really spinning. More than ever, people young and old want to found or work in tech startups in a significant mindset shift from a decade ago. More than ever, early employees from one successful startup are leaving to do their own projects, taking money and expertise with them.
Michael Stothard

Europe will mint 25 more startup unicorns

In 2020 Europe created 18 new privately held startup “unicorns” worth more than $1bn, bringing the total number to nearly 60 (depending on how you count it).
I predict that this will increase to 25 tech companies raising money at a $1bn+ valuation for the first time in 2021 as momentum continues to build.
Why? Well, the fact is that Europe is now producing unicorn companies at the same rate as the US, with seed-funded companies in both regions having around a 1 in 100 chance of scaling to a $1bn+ valuation. That should lead to 25 easy.
Michael Stothard

90% of capital will go to all-male founding teams

Last year only 90.8% of VC money invested into European startups went to all-male teams, according to Atomico’s State of European Tech report. This was pretty much the same as in previous years, with little sign of improvement.
“The data is unbelievably grim from a gender perspective,” said Tom Wehmeier, the author of the report.
While there is some sign of more money being raised by female-led companies at the early stages, it is not much to cling to. And at the later stages, the data is very bad. Not one deal over $50M was closed by a women-only team in 2020.
I hope that this will start to shift in a meaningful way this year, but I fear that it will be the same kind of numbers all over again in 2021.
Michael Stothard

Klarna will claim to be the new Amazon

Remember when the cofounder of the fintech startup Klarna, Sebastian Siemiatkowski thanked CNBC “for making it official: Klarna is now the global innovation leader and Paypal the follower.”
At the time, many of us smiled at the somewhat attention-seeking tweet from the Swedish entrepreneur. Dragos Novac did a great analysis about it.
But perhaps Siemiatkowski has a point.
The Klarna app has moved away from being a payment app (you can still manage your payments there) to something bigger and shinier. It is now actually luring us to shop through the app.
Being eight months pregnant there is no point in me looking at sequin dresses, but still, I find myself browsing with an urge to spend money.
In comparison, Amazon, which I visited the other week, has the opposite effect on me.
Klarna just hired a fashion director as well. In terms of logistics and warehousing, it obviously has some way to go, but Amazon wasn’t built overnight either.
I’m not the first to think this, but I am pretty sure I am the first to bet a sequin dress that Siemiatkowski will tweet that Klarna has taken the first step becoming the 2020’s no 1 super-platform by the end of 2021. Amazon is so 90s.
Mimi Billing

The rise of the European SPAC — and the slump of the IPO

In Europe, SPACs is still a little known piece of jargon, but 2021 will change that.
SPACs (special-purpose acquisition companies) give startups an alternative to listing publicly. They are essentially public investment vehicles with a mandate to buy large stakes in startups.
Instead of listing on a public exchange then, startups can be bought by a SPAC — securing a large capital raise as well as allowing early shareholders to cash in.
The benefit of a SPAC exit is it avoids much of the regulation and red-tape that comes with going public normally. Meanwhile, SPACs often offer startups the same valuation they expected to get on the public market.
Moreover, SPACs are themselves publicly traded, so retail investors can still indirectly buy-in to the success of a startup.
SPACs are already all the rage in the US, and it’s only a matter of time before they begin to court large European startups — especially fintechs.
Indeed, the European startup ecosystem is maturing and expected to soon produce a wave of public exits.
Isabel Woodford

Climate tech will become the hottest investment topic

Greta Thunberg and her fellow environmental activists have done their thing. Governments are responding (albeit too slowly). Big companies are outbidding each other in their efforts to look green. VC investors are increasingly investing in climate tech startups in anticipation of big policy shifts.
In February, Bill Gates will publish a much-anticipated book on how to avoid a climate disaster, sparking a global conversation about what practical steps we all need to take. 2021 will be the year when green investment goes mainstream. European entrepreneurs have plenty of smart ideas about how to tackle climate change. Now they need to scale.
To date, climate tech investments have accounted for a relatively small, if very fast-growing, sliver of VC funds (about 6% of the total capital invested in 2019 according to Dealroom).
But they are ramping up quickly, increasing from $418m in 2013 to $16.3bn in 2019. Expect them to grow even faster in 2021 as citizens, consumers, employees, companies and investors all demand that more be done to respond to the climate emergency.
John Thornhill

Bosses will want us back in the office ASAP

Many of us feel ambivalent about the new normal of working from home. While answering emails from bed in pajamas might be fun from time to time, it’s easy to feel isolated, less active, and less connected to the world around us without the routine of going into the office.
As countries have oscillated between tougher and looser restrictions in response to infection rates, many companies have adopted hybrid models, with employees coming into the office for a few days a week. Many workers will be pushing for a similarly flexible model to become a long-term policy from their bosses.
But don’t expect all employers to give up without a fight.
Following the initial lockdown, we’ve already seen stories of workers being summoned back to the workplace against their will, and Facebook has been accused of “risking lives” by bringing employees back to the office prematurely.
Workers who’d rather have some flexibility certainly have a case to make, with research showing that remote work can increase productivity. However, rising unemployment in a post-pandemic economic slowdown could weaken workers’ negotiating hand, as we enter a “buyers’ market,” particularly at a junior level.
More senior employees will likely have more say over the terms of their work, and it will be down to them to secure a more flexible approach for others.
Tim Smith

Europe’s tech ecosystem will become more unequal as Covid begins to bite

The last global financial crash was not an easy time for southern European nations. Unemployment skyrocketed as fragile economies buckled, and many in the region fear we could be in for more of the same this time around.
Signs of a widening gap between northern and southern European startups are already showing. While Europe as a whole looks set this year to exceed funding levels compared to 2019, investment in Spanish startups has fallen by more than half.
Government support programmes for the tech sector also paint a worrying picture for the south. As countries like Germany and France rolled out €2bn and €4bn support schemes respectively, the tech sector in Portugal was treated to €25m in aid measures.
There is hope that the European Recovery Fund will go some way to prevent the gap widening further. Back in August, the EU agreed to a €750bn relief package that will disproportionately benefit smaller European economies, but veterans of the last financial crash believe it will be inadequate to create a truly integrated Europe.
The gathering storm of recession and unemployment will hit Europe hard when furlough schemes come to an end. When it does, the continent’s smaller economies will be far less equipped to weather it.
Tim Smith

Your dog will eat insects

Possibly Rover is already hoovering up the occasional spider or beetle in the garden, but we mean eating insects on a more regular basis as insect-based protein becomes a more mainstream pet food option.
Insect protein much more eco-friendly than meat, as producing a kilo of insect-protein takes just 2% of the land area 4% of the water that producing a kilo of beef produces. With pets estimated to be consuming 20% of the world’s meat, many owners are becoming concerned about the carbon pawprint. Insect protein may also be healthier for pets — a surprisingly high percentage of dogs, for example, have an allergy to beef.
Ynsect, the French mealworm farming company which raised an eye-popping $372m funding round this autumn, already sells its insect protein to makers of hypoallergenic doga and cat food, but now says it is in talks with several large pet food brands too. Ynsect is building a huge production plant in Amiens that will allow it to produce 1,000 times more mealworm protein than it does today.
Signs of insect-based pet food’s popularity are around at the grassroots level too. Aardvark, the UK-based startup selling insect-based dry pet food, ended up raising some £300,000 in its recent crowdfunding campaign, six times more than the £50,000 it had initially sought. The Aardvark team planning to start selling direct to consumers in early 2021.
Maija Palmer

Cities will say yes to flying taxis

We’re not going to be riding in flying taxis yet in 2021 — the first services aren’t likely to begin until 2023 at the earliest. But cities will start to make preparations for networks of flying taxis.
Volocopter, the German flying taxi startup, will start test flights near Paris next year, and has said it would begin services in Singapore by 2023. Dubai is also carrying out tests with Volocopter and China’s EHang, and says it could begin services in 2022.
EHang is also working with the Austrian city of Linz on a pilot project.
Meanwhile, Lilium, the German flying taxi company, has announced a series of hubs this autumn. Germany it has deals with Cologne and Dusseldorf airports, and in the US it has a deal with Lake Nona, the futuristic smart city just outside Orlando, to operate flights from there. Expect a lot more announcements in 2021 for take-off and landing spots in other cities.
There are at least 50 cities worldwide evaluating the viability of urban air mobility, according to a report by Frost and Sullivan, the consultancy, mainly because they need to ease congestion and find cheaper alternatives to road- and rail-building.
Maija Palmer

We will figure out what to do with quantum computers

Quantum computers are the answer to everything — and nothing. The number of qubits in a quantum machine is still relatively low — 65 for an IBM machine — and so far it has been a little unclear just what we will be doing with quantum machines even when they do have a usable amount of qubit power.
Cambridge Quantum Computing are working out some ideas. A first project is to sell certifiably random numbers to companies that need them, which sounds a bit underwhelming unless you understand just how difficult it is to get true randomness. An idea with more wow-factor is revamping the way computers handle language — moving away from just pattern recognition around sets of words to machines that could understand grammar and the meaning of words. The first corporate customers can start buying these services next year.
Experts believe optimisation problems — the classic example is the traveling salesman trying to work out the shortest route that connects multiple cities — could be one of the areas where there is a benefit to going quantum. Once you factor in a large number of cities, there are so many different variations that classical computers struggle to handle them. In finance, there are potential uses of quantum to optimise investment portfolios.
Return on investment still looks uncertain when it comes to quantum computing, but expect companies to start figuring it out next year.
Maija Palmer

TikTok will announce a fintech product of some sort

The boom in banking infrastructure means that today, ‘everyone can be a fintech.’
Users can now spend with Apple or Google, Uber operates mobile wallets for its drivers, and Facebook is helping build a cryptocurrency.
So it’s only a matter of time before TikTok — the most downloaded app of 2020 — follows suit.
TikTok allows millions of users worldwide to curate short-form videos. and is particularly popular among teenagers (Gen Z).
No surprise then that Chinese-based TikTok is already reportedly looking at securing a banking license, according to the Financial Times.
This is consistent with reports by the Wall Street Journal that TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, wants to build out a franchise far beyond video-streaming.
TikTok’s financial play might take the form of peer-to-peer payments or even mobile wallets to allow users to buy products advertised immediately in the app curators.
Mobile wallets could also be utilised by influencers who partner with large brands on the app.
Gen Z has over $143 billion in spending power, making them a lucrative audience to onboard for financial services.
Isabel Woodford

Everything will get gamified

It’s likely to be a few months before vaccines make their way and the “new normal” gives way to parts of the “old normal” that we all miss: seeing colleagues, going for drinks and a nice meal with friends, or catching a concert or an art exhibit.
As we try to do those things while we’re still stuck at home, and sitting in front of a screen takes up an increasingly substantial part of our days, my bet is that our entire existence will become gamified in 2021.
By that, I mean that applications of all sorts are likely to borrow more and more from the world of video games — because if they’re going to keep us interested, they’re going to have to keep us active behind our screens.
One thing 2020 proved is that screen fatigue is very much a real thing, the worst of which tends to manifest itself during Zoom video calls. Keeping students interested has prompted school teachers to experiment with creative edtech, from the likes of Norway’s educational games app Kahoot!.
And games (small simple games, not Playstation blockbusters) are catching on as a social facilitator for after-school interactions too. European teen social app Yubo has wooed more than 40m users in 40 countries with online interactions that focus on just having a nice time with peers, including by playing small games like “would you rather” or “let them guess”.
As concert halls and opera houses stay forced shut in cities across Europe, they’re also exploring alternatives for what steps to take after launching classic streaming services. Rolling Stone magazine wrote recently about how animated concerts could well become the next craze, bringing music and video games together: full with virtual reality headsets, virtual avatars that interact — and digital “pills” that create the online equivalent of taking drugs.
Marie Mawad

European cities will solve the scooter littering problem

Whilst some European cities such as London have not yet approved the use of electric scooters on the streets others have more or less banned them already for being too messy.
The city council in Copenhagen decided earlier this year that electric scooters are allowed on the streets – they just need to be hired from a physical shop and then be returned to it as well. This obviously is not in line with the business model of Voi, Tier and Dott.
The move was akin to Copenhagen’s decision to ban Uber for a few years back – stating that they could do better themselves. They couldn’t but that doesn’t mean that they would budge under the pressure this time.
Many cities, like Lisbon, Paris, Berlin have introduced fines for electric scooters wrongly parked. In Sweden, there is now an app for angry pedestrians to send a note to the local government departments, tipping them off about wrongly parked scooters.
The problem of scooters lying across the pavements seems to continue though. Perhaps next year we will see a new way of dealing with the scooters without the drastic measures of Copenhagen.
Mimi Billing

Devices will train your brain

Managing your health has become a mantra for many. You are in control of your sleep, your vitamin deficiencies through blood tests and your weekly exercise, right?
If you have all those things in check, then you should check out the next bright thing – brain training. We aren’t speaking of sudoku or juggling but actually improving your brain through neurofeedback.
Neurofeedback is a therapeutic intervention that helps the brain to learn by giving it feedback. It works similarly to a computer game giving you points when you are winning. With a headband stuck on your head and your eyes locked on a screen, it actually assesses your brainwave activity.
Neurofeedback has been used to address problems of anxiety-depression, attention deficits, behavior disorders, sleep disorders, headaches and migraines, PMS and emotional disturbances. But who said it has to stop here?
Research has shown that people without known issues also can improve their brains by using the same technology. So, will the year of 2021 be the year we all become smarter, nicer and more focussed? No, but the trend of trying is definitely about to take off.
Mimi Billing

The year of Dr Data

If 2020 was the year when video consultations with doctors finally became a generalized reality, 2021 is gearing up to be the year of data sharing between patients and their doctors.
There’s increasing demand from practitioners and patients for ways to easily monitor their health at a distance in between appointments.
French startup Withings, which makes connected everythings from smart watches that measure your heart rate to blood pressure monitors, raised money recently to pursue just that.
The coronavirus has helped attract interest of course, but it’s not just that. In the US, regulatory changes are also acting as accelerators: insurance companies are subsidising doctors to do more patient tracking using connected devices from scales to blood pressure and sleep monitors.
Chronic diseases in particular, like diabetes, high blood pressure and sleep apnea, call for this kind of monitoring. They’re typically conditions that both patients and doctors need to keep an eye on, although booking frequent appointments just to check in if nothing is wrong doesn’t necessarily make sense.
Remote monitoring is the second category behind teleconsultations on CB Insights’ annual ranking of the 150 most promising digital health startups in the world.
Marie Mawad

The year big tech gets a big dressing down from governments

Public opinion around the big tech giants – Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple – has been turning for some time, but recent events have coalesced to shine a more urgent spotlight on some of their more questionable practices.
Examples include Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal, antitrust charges brought against Google, growing protests against workers’ rights in Amazon warehouses, and Apple’s obligation to pay out $113m for slowing down phones.
The European Union has released its own plans to regulate big tech, with threats to break up companies that don’t comply with new rules on data usage and competition. Meanwhile, the US government has said Facebook must sell Whatsapp and Instagram, claiming it has used illegal monopolies to choke off competition. Mark Zuckerberg has said that Facebook will fight this in court, but the ground is being paved to give smaller startups and competitors more of an even footing.
While some still view these companies as impressive and innovative organisations, policy makers are now responding to growing concerns over whether technology is really working for society’s benefit.
Tim Smith
Originally published bySifted Reporters | January 4, 2021
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Handpan for sale

Handpan for sale
You want to shop for a handpan, but you are feeling lost? this is often the guide you would like to form the simplest decision for your future purchase.
Handpan for sale
There was just one sort of instrument, the Hang from Apart. you only had to travel to go to them, try the instruments, and you’ll either pip out and return home with it or place an order. Over the years that followed, it became increasingly difficult to urge an instrument. As awareness of the Hang grew, demand for them increased exponentially, and Apart quickly became unable to satisfy everyone’s requests.
In 2013, Apart stopped making instruments, and while there have been several alternative makers who had started creating instruments, their roll s were long, thanks to pent up demand. During this point, it had been not uncommon to attend between one and three years to urge a Handpan for sale, especially if you had no connection to the hand pan world.
Today, incredibly, we will find makers of purses everywhere in the world! The instrument is widely known and much more accessible. it’s often possible to accumulate a handpan during a very short period of your time. This abundance presents a replacement problem. We now have a tough time deciding what percentage of manufacturers there are on the market, who they’re, and what quality of labor they produce.

1. what’s the worth of a handpan?

A handpan isn’t that expensive for a homemade instrument, but they’re faraway from cheap. the worth of 90% of handpans ranges. the large problem, however, is that the instrument is so wanted that some see it as a chance to form money. That’s why you’ll find manufacturers that sell instruments that are too expensive compared to the standard they provide, or people reselling instruments for much quite they originally acquired them for.
But, don’t be afraid! Your ear, with a touch little bit of practice, will assist you to make the proper decision.
There is a ‘normal’ range pricing and I’ve written a piece of writing about what proportion a handpan costs, so you are doing not got to be an expert to understand which instrument to shop for.

2. How do I select my handpan?

This is an enormous question, and there’s no simple or easy answer. But don’t worry… with a couple of considerations and a few research, you’ll make the choice that’s right for you. Here are my top five tips to assist you on your way.

3. the way to find a manufacturer?

Each and each day it seems there’s a replacement handpan maker. It’s exciting but also a touch confusing once you want to settle on the proper one. At Master The Handpan, we wanted to form this process a touch bit simpler. That’s why we created a comprehensive list of handpan makers around the world. this is often sort of a buyer’s guide where you’ll compare scales, price, materials, waiting list, delivery options, and so on. This list is growing (almost every day).
Take the time to see it out. Please note that Master The Handpan isn’t endorsing any handpan makers listed. Our goal is to supply as many handpan makers as we will, but we will not test all handspans. So take some time, ask inquiries to our Handpan for sale maker’s friends and be wise

4. the way to contact a manufacturer?

You now have an inventory of manufacturers and an inventory of scales that you simply like. Of course, this is often a private journey. We all have our own tastes and selection criteria. However, I bet that if you’ve got watched tons of videos, you’ll have identified good makers and avoided some ‘saucepans’.
This community has some good connoisseurs. Although we don’t all just like the same things, there are still makers for whom 90% of the players are unanimous about the great or bad quality of their handpan. In the end, your ear is going to be the simplest judge.

5. Small details to speak through with the manufacturers.

Service: Before you buy from them, confirm that they need an after-sales service
Retuning: If your instrument goes out of tune in the longer term, what does one do?. Ask them if they supply a retuning service, what proportion it might cost you, the way to ship it back to them, etc
Receiving your instrument: Discuss the simplest way(s) to urge your instrument to you safely. the 2 main ways are shipping (via mail/courier) and picking it up yourself.

6. the way to buy a handpan from a 3rd party?

There are many purchases and resales during this community and you’ll prefer to buy a handpan ‘second hand’. there is a Swap & Sell category within the Handpan Village (you might want to sign-up and check regularly if something new is available).
Buying a handpan ‘second hand’ isn’t as stressful because it sounds — it are often done very securely.

7. don’t be in a hurry!

You cannot imagine what percentage of people are filled with regret after their handpan purchase. Believe me, it’s better to attend a couple of more months and make the ‘right’ purchase, instead of end up with an instrument which will not offer you any satisfaction. a couple of years ago, buyers jumped impulsively at the slightest opportunity to accumulate a Handpan for sale, because it was really very difficult to seek out one. Things are changing. twiddling my thumbs. it’s also difficult to sell a poor quality handpan, so it’s important that you simply make an informed decision at the outset.

8. Bonus tip

Almost a day, I receive emails from future players who are desperate to help find and buy a handpan. After spending hours researching makers, scales, watching videos online, reading blog posts (yes, including this one) the task feels overwhelming. you would like to form the proper choice, and that I feel your pain.
So after months of trying to seek out an easy solution, I feel I even have found how to assist make the search such a lot easier. I will be able to soon be launching Handpan for sale Sales.
The idea is simple: I bring you the simplest selection of quality instruments and you create your decision supported objective information. determine more about this project here.
I hope this text will assist you in your quest and that i wish you an honest purchase!

Handpan for sale
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NFLX Earnings Trade?

NFLX Earnings Trade?
Hi, I'm posting a few thoughts on earnings that are intended to be helpful in trying to gain consistency in trading.
With NFLX earnings today after the close, I'm seeing a lot of newer traders discussing buying far out of the money calls in the hopes that NFLX "kills it" and rallies huge after earnings. As a word of warning, although this "could" work, it is one of the lowest probability trades you can do.
The market makers (and computers) have already priced in a $43 move either up or down in the stock. So in order to make decent money in a long call or long put, the stock would need to move much more than the $43 move that is already priced in. In other words, you could buy a $600 call, the stock jumps up $43 with earnings, and you lose 100% of your money invested in the trade (assuming you bought a $600 call that expires Friday). In addition to the move being "baked in" the Implied Volatility is at peak levels right before earnings. Friday morning that Implied Volatility will instantly drop back to normal, and the premium portion of the options will implode. All in all, it makes buying an out of the money call a lotto ticket trade.
The \"market maker move\" is shown on this platform, but you can also get close to that figure buy adding up the at the money call and at the money put.
Instead, consider what the market makers do for earnings. They sell the at the money call and the at the money put as a naked straddle in order to capture the rapid premium decay after earnings are announced. They make a living doing this.
Personally, I'm not a huge fan of naked options over earnings, so instead, I'll do an at the money Iron Condor (also called an Iron Fly when the sold strikes are the same). This is selling a naked straddle but with the protection of long options to contain your maximum risk in case the stock does have one of those rare moves that is well beyond what is already "expected."
This is what the risk to reward looks like on a 1 lot trade on a $45 wide (expected move) Iron Fly on NFLX. (To reduce your max risk, you can narrow the width of the spread).
Max profit and max loss selling the $525 at the money call and put and buying options $45 out on either side to establish maximum risk.
This is simply a bet that the move on NFLX is already baked into the options price, and by the time the stock opens Friday morning, it will be up or down less than the $43 expected move.
A few notes on this trade:
  • It's not guaranteed to work, of course, but the odds of getting a profit on this setup is much higher, over time, than buying an out of the money call. (And don't get me wrong, it is amazing having calls when a stock explodes - this strategy is more for consistent base hits than occasional grand slam home runs).
  • Tip: If you normally risk $1,500 on a trade on a normal stop loss, then just line up your "max loss" with this. That way if the trade hits max loss, it is just like hitting a stop out vs. trading too big and having a max loss trade be a disaster.
  • The closer NFLX opens to your sold strikes Friday morning, or anytime on Friday, the higher your profit.
  • If NFLX does open up or down right around the expected move, you can wait for retracements. (The expected move often acts as support or resistance, as there is a lot of money riding on it staying within that range).
  • Max loss occurs if, by Friday's close, NFLX is trading above the long options, in this case, $570 or $480. I always position size assuming it is NOT going to work, so I'm not freaking out if it has a big move against me. Base hits, not home runs.
  • In general, I try to get out at 50% of the credit received. In this case, the credit is $32.25, so my exit would be set near $16.00. I've found that to be a fairly consistent level to exit if the stock is staying within the "expected move" parameters.
Hope it helps!
Edit: Adding a screenshot of trade after the close. Currently, NFLX is trading down around $475, so it's kicking me in the teeth. I would need the stock to rally back to $500 at some point tomorrow in order to get a scratch/small gain on the fly. If it opens up down within the expected move, then I might sell some 450 put credit spreads to bring in additional credit to offset the loss. If it opens below the expected move, I might buy back the short put and let the long put run but that brings on a lot of additional risk. Should be an interesting Friday.
NFLX Earnings Trade
Edit: Ok now it's Friday after the close. Did NFLX follow those "expected move" guidelines or not? Here's a chart that includes the after-hours action. After hours will usually push through the expected move, as it did after earnings. Then, with the cash open it was back to "at" and eventually "within" the expected move of $43. The move up to $500 allowed me to get out of the iron fly at a small gain (if you don't open near the closing price, the goal is to get out on a move inside of the expected move once the after-hours action has settled down). Ideally, we open up or move closer to the previous days closing price, as that would give us the biggest bang for the buck on the trade.
Anyway, hope it's helpful in understanding earnings moves. My preference is to sell options to take advantage of premium decay and the tendency of a stock to stay within its expected move vs. buying OTM calls and puts hoping for a move that is greater than what's already been priced in.

https://preview.redd.it/i4xrhk2dghb51.png?width=737&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c019f02d0ceffeae742227417f61b38dbd2eaac
submitted by jcarter593 to options [link] [comments]

A Thief's Journal: Week 1 - Back into the seat

https://www.reddit.com/Eve/comments/iisc4n/a_thiefs_journal_prologue_waking_up_again - Prologue
Week 1: 4/11 - 4/18/2020

Well we are off to a good start. After a picking out our regions, we got to work scouting structures. It didn't take too long before everyone was set up, not nearly as long as I thought it would.
I'm going to try to keep track of any activity on grid with the unanchoring structures but sometimes there just isn't any activity at all.
Agal - Industrial (Star Serpent Corporation)Found: 4/10 10:55pmUnanchored: 4/11 6:17pmStructure: RaitaruSold: 493,833,000 iskScooped: Shamus+++++Star Serpent, the owner and CEO, was there at the structure waiting for it to unanchor. Apparently he didn't know that the structure popped 50km away from him, when he needs to be within 2,500m to scoop it. I say this because he was slow boating to it. I had warped straight to the compressed Raitaru and scooped it right from under his nose.
I then talked with him and gave him some tips about how to do it better next time. He seemed like a good guy that really just didn't know much about structures and how they worked. We added each other to contacts to keep in touch, in case he ever needs my services or advice. He is the kind of pilot we need here in New Eden, one that can take a loss and not give up.
Sadly though, he stopped unanchoring his Athanor that was on grid.+++++

Bherdasopt - Public Refinery (Low Tax Mission Snax)Found: 4/7 10:28pmUnanchored: 4/12 1:05pmStructure: AthanorSold: 772,420,500 iskScooped: Gendrath+++++Thought that this one would come out on Tuesday, and I had found it the first day of unanchoring, I'm glad I was off today and watching the controls. No one was on grid but man it still gets my heart pumping as much as if someone was on grid. It doesn't last as long though. Great present for Easter Sunday, I do call them eggs when they pop unanchored. Beautiful little eggs...+++++

Ebasez - UT Station (Uranian Technologies)Found: 4/10 5:23pmUnanchored: 4/12 3:48pmStructure: AstrahusSold: 918,850,000 iskScooped: Shamus++++Shivaitee, the station owner showed up as it popped but he warped to the old saved location and was 38km away from the Astrahus when I landed next to its compressed egg. Second one for Easter Sunday.
Mmmm it's kind of nice to scoop up an Astrahus, they are the most expensive of the medium structures. He didn't take it too well that I was reclaiming his structure and told me to go fuck myself multiple times. I offered to teach him how to do it properly, but he said "I Need no lessons from a thief!" and told me yet again to go fuck myself. Probably one of the saltier ones that I've had so far.+++++

Pashanai - SHSLC - Maquro (Sashimi Holdings LLC)Found: 4/8 11:32pmUnanchored: 4/13 6:50amStructure: AthanorSold: 742,900,000 iskScooped: Zaphire+++++Woke up after server reset to log back in the characters and while loading in Zaphire I noticed the Athanor she was watching had popped, there is a hanger container and a shuttle on grid. Ok its a shuttle no worries, I initiate warp to the egg and a Tayra shows up on grid while I'm in warp, he is right on grid with the Athanor! But instead of scooping it first he goes for the hangar container! I scoop the Athanor and warp off, dock up and disconnect.
I think that this station belonged to some old alliance friends that destroyed my once great Moon mining empire. One by one as they leave I will be there to scoop their structures. Also the fact that this one was a wake up and instant scoop leads me to believe in my instincts even more. If I had been any slower I would have missed this one. Seconds count in this profession+++++

Zimse - Core (MM Holdings)Found: 4/13 10:21pmUnanchored: 4/15 4:43pmStructure: AthanorSold: 767,435,250 iskScooped: Shamus+++++I found a new method of notification for the structures when they finish unanchoring with this Athanor. I tried putting a single item the station so I'd get a notification of item movement to Asset Safety when the station unanchors. I was right! It notifies you not 30s after it pops and becomes scoop-able. I was in Munory, which is a system over, when this one popped and I am surprised I made in and was able to scoop it. I landed on grid with 2 other ships, One Vagabond and one Tayra.
I Thought I was going to miss it to the Tayra but I was able to land and scoop it before they were, the Vagabond had me targeted but didn't attack or anything, which is interesting. I wonder if the Praxis I am flying is a deterrent. I made it to a station safe and sound to unload the compressed station.
Man what a rush; awesome to know that it is a near instant notification that your items are being transferred to asset safety. Sadly at his next Athanor he brought 4 other battleships to defend it. I decided to leave that one be and not test the bounds of my ship+++++

Bania - Deep Thought (42 Deep Thought Industries)Found: 4/12 2:36pmUnanchored: 4/17 Missed+++++Missed this one due to work, left @ 10am, returned at 5pm, empty grid, I bet it was around lunch time. Maybe I should take the tablet to work to monitor during lunch? For the moment though, missing one here and there when earning real world money isn't so bad. With the new method of alarming the structures I am able to camp whole systems that are small enough.
Zimse for example, has 4 unanchoring and is less than 14au across. Allowing you to pop around system, while you wait for the structure to pop. once it does, D-Scan the system and warp to the egg.+++++

4/17/20209:41pmLooking though other battleships and fits, the Praxis is really the only one that can fit a structure in it and still have a decent align time. The only other one with anywhere enough space is the Megathron but it aligns twice as slow as the Praxis, so it is the only viable battleship to scoop with.
4/18/20201:37amLooking through Industrial ships to see if there are any other viable options and @ max skills I got one down to 3.88s align time. Badger it does require lvl V Caldari Industrial (I - V 20day @ 34.5sp/m) to be that fast and have enough cargo space for a small structure. This will be Zaphires' new ship since she has the max skills to fly the thing. will be super nice knowing she is that slippery. Sadly it is a fit for Omega Scooper Pilots only.

Zimse - 05 moon (ind Corporation of Moon Hellcat)Found: 4/13 10:22pmUnanchored: 4/18 9:35amStructure: AthanorSold: 796,662,500 iskScooped: Shamus+++++I warped to the egg after it had popped, thanks to the new notification method. I landed on grid with an Orca and an Iteron mk V. The Iteron V was 9,000km and closing away from the structures egg when I landed on grid, I was able to scoop it, warp off and drop into another station safely to wait out the suspect timer.
I did miss one 30 minutes ago though sadly, we will see how many we can get by days end.
I played the SalvageReclaimer a bit more with this corporation.+++++

+++++Private Chat Logs+++++
tyrish Thellere > Hi
Shamus O'neal > o/
Shamus O'neal > whats up?
tyrish Thellere > You recently talked to Nickolas F Hunt I advise you to return the stolen otherwise you will have problems
Shamus O'neal > Stolen? I'm sorry but i have a work order for the reclamation of unwanted structure 73169-f in Zimse, if this work order was filed in error, a fee of 750mil is required to get the structure out of impound
tyrish Thellere > Who made this order?
Shamus O'neal > Anon-469 on the 13th of the month
tyrish Thellere > Do you understand that in case of failure you will be ordered?
Shamus O'neal > I think you are failing to understand, I acknowledge I have your structure, I acknowledge that you want it back, but i cannot comply without the processing fee of 750mil to return the structure out of impound.
+++++
Haron F Hunt > Hello pic maker, you have an hour to bring station back or u will be illuminated. I'm just saying a fact
Shamus O'neal > :) processing fee of 750,000,000isk is required my friend. Work order 73169-f has been completed and a processing fee is required to remove the structure Zimse - 05 moon (ind Corporation of Moon Hellcat) from impound and adoption
Shamus O'neal > ooooh we already have someone looking to adopt your structure for 800mil, I can hold the adoption papers for a moment if you would like to get it out of impound
Shamus O'neal > Failure to pay the processing fee has seen your athanor adopted into a new home, I hope you treat your things better next time+++++
Work Order 73169-f from Anon-469, ha! I tried to give it back to them for a 750,000,000 isk processing fee
They brought 13 ships (78.3mil) to try to kill me! Didn't pop the praxis though, they had me in hull by the time Concord detected their aggression and proceeded to vaporize the ships they were flying.
I put their kill rights up for 10mil(changed to 25) each so hopefully that'll do some damage and get used, +130mil(295mil) for me.
+++++Your kill right was usedFrom: CONCORDSent: 2020.04.18 20:22
Mantoptera Bogomol has been killed using your kill right. The kill right you had on this capsuleer has now been removed.+++++
Mantoptera Bogomol was one of the guys that tried to suicide gank me after stealing 05 moon.

Successful Kill rights so farLaavainell Makanen: No Kill report avaliable - 10mil Kill rightMantoptera Bogomol (Drekavac) - https://zkillboard.com/kill/83464280/ 10mil Kill RightAlexander Hennesy (Tayra) - https://zkillboard.com/kill/83466889/ 25mil Kill RightUnnamedPlayer (Gila) 2x25mil Kill Right - https://zkillboard.com/kill/83492986/Kiril Deninard (Moa) 2x25mil Kill Right - https://zkillboard.com/kill/83549109/L82 - 10mil Kill Right but no killRoman Asder (Drekavac) - 25mil Kill Right - https://zkillboard.com/kill/83623283/

2020.04.24 17:22 Kill Right 25,000,000 ISK God Emperor Kane bought kill right on Roman Asder from Shamus O'neal2020.04.21 18:43 Kill Right 25,000,000 ISK Omar Chimera bought kill right on Kiril Deninard from Shamus O'neal2020.04.21 18:13 Kill Right 25,000,000 ISK Bot Model1000 bought kill right on Kiril Deninard from Shamus O'neal2020.04.19 16:57 Kill Right 25,000,000 ISK Frikkoso bought kill right on UnnamedPlayer from Shamus O'neal2020.04.19 10:03 Kill Right 25,000,000 ISK Giges Thellere bought kill right on UnnamedPlayer from Shamus O'neal2020.04.18 21:40 Kill Right 25,000,000 ISK Cargo Bandit bought kill right on Alexander Hennesy from Shamus O'neal2020.04.18 20:21 Kill Right 10,000,000 ISK DerpimusPrime Aihaken bought kill right on Mantoptera Bogomol from Shamus O'neal2020.04.18 20:00 Kill Right 10,000,000 ISK Mister Peking bought kill right on L82 from Shamus O'neal2020.04.18 19:58 Kill Right 10,000,000 ISK MacGybo bought kill right on Laavainell Makanen from Shamus O'neal
Total so far: 180mil from Kill Rights from Buying and not completing, them being slippery earns me more money!!+++++

Zimse - 04 moon (ind Corporation of Moon Hellcat)Found: 4/13 10:28pmUnanchored: 4/18 1:05pmStructure: AthanorSold: 796,662,500 iskScooped: Shamus+++++They were protecting it with their fleet on grid, all their suicide ships and even some actual combat ships, I warped to the egg, aligned out, made speed, scooped, warped and the chase was on. I miss-clicked a gate instead of a structure and tried to U-turn; big mistake that turned out to be, they caught me on the gate as I tried to jump to a structure in system. I guess instead I'll have to jump the gate and try again on the other side.
The Stargate wormhole spit me out into the next system, where I don't think my controls were responding correctly and I was sitting there aligning for a moment, mashing on the warp command in a fury. It finally responded and I entered warp headed to; another gate, damn. Lets do another U-turn to the first structure on overview. Few moments pause while I'm aligning to the nearest structure, as my heart is beating out of the clones chest.
Time seemed to slow here and the 8 second align time that this battleship has felt more like the align time of a transporters freighter. I'm finally into warp headed in a safe direction and this cat and mouse game can come to an end.
"Whooo! what a rush!" I scream into local chat "Man! Better than cocaine!!!!"+++++
Man that was a ton of fun and totally worth it! God damn, here I am 10 minutes later still with the shakes and heart pounding, god damn the Praxis is a good fit for this line of work. glad I could save this one from the dust.

4/18/20202:27pmMan I still have the shakes from that last encounter, what a rush!!! I'm very impressed with the Praxis and now I'm more confident that even if someone is defending and on grid I have a good chance of scooping it and getting away safely.
That's 2 Athanors for today and in total 4 structures in the Praxis, I'd call that a staggering success for a battleship used for stealing structures. should have used Gendrath on the 4th structure, he was there in system and the defense fleet was following me. Would have snagged a 3rd today I bet.

6:40pmThe rush is finally calming down. Wow that really was some amazing content and I am super surprised that;
  1. The Praxis survived the suicide run attempt
  2. I scooped it right out from under the whole fleet they had waiting to defend it
  3. I made it away safely
  4. That it was done on an alpha clone
*Shout out to this corporation for having some balls to try to protect their structure* (ind Corporation of Moon Hellcat)

First Week 4/11/2020 - 4/18/2020Astrahus:[1] Athanor:[5] Raitaru:[1]Gendrath:[1] Shamus:[5] Zaphire:[1]
Net Gain: 5,393,763,750 iskNet Loss: 0 isk

What a week it has been! 5.3 Billion Isk in the bank!! So many things learned, so early on, that can only make for a more successful journey and business venture. The notification system, the hardiness and speed of the Alpha Praxis, the speed of the Badger. All compared to what I used to run in the Iteron mk V. such a slow boat it feels like now.
Had the most exhilarating scoop to date including before this play through of eve. Survived a Suicide gank of 13 people; and then subsequently scooped a structure from under the same 13 + 3 others including a Tengu.
https://zkillboard.com/b118498/- Missing one ship from the attempted suicide runhttps://evepraisal.com/a/qea01 - Estimated value of Reclaimed Structures before taxes and fees
+++++
This has been Week 1 of 12. I hope you guys enjoy the sticky fingered adventures of the Valkson clan
Week 2: https://www.reddit.com/Eve/comments/inryh5/a_thiefs_journal_week_2_holy_space_cow/
Edit: Formatting againEdit2: Formatting again..
submitted by Gendrath to Eve [link] [comments]

I Can Make You Hot!: The Supermodel Diet (by Kelly Killoren Bensimon) -- Part Two

I hope you all have taken full advantage of the past 48 hours or so to regain some sense of normalcy after our adventures through Part 1 of Kelly Killoren Bensimon's I Can Make You Hot! Without further ado, Part Two:
I resume my journey through the truly incomprehensible mind of Kelly Bensimon with a chapter entitled, "Thursday: Tricks of My Trade." Now that we've learned about the basic building blocks of hotness, Kelly promises to share even more hard-earned advice to help us really kick things up a notch. And, as she reassures us:
I'm actually glad for the mistakes I've made because anyone who doesn't make mistakes doesn't learn, and if you don't learn, you're boring!
And if you're boring, you're not HOT! I think I'm starting to get the hang of this!
One of Kelly's most important life lessons came at her first horse show, when she made an unbelievably devastating misstep: "I decided to have an egg on a bagel from the food-service van." What kind of unimaginable ripple effects did this poor decision set off? I continue on to learn that Kelly "did all right in the competition." And…that's literally the whole story. Kelly legitimately refers to this as "one of my biggest lessons," as it taught her "to never eat more than I normally would." If life-changing breakthroughs were this easily sparked in my own life, I can't even begin to imagine how self-actualized I would be at this point.
At this point in my reading, I have reached the book's first insert, which contains about a dozen glossy color photos from various phases of Kelly's life. Unfortunately, I am far too preoccupied by this picture, in which a carefree, wind-swept Kelly clenches her infant daughter under one arm with all the grace of an NFL wide receiver, to pay the rest of the spread much mind.
We continue on as Kelly introduces new dimensions to the basic tips she's previously introduced. For example, you may have had some vague idea that water was important, but Kelly -- always there to help us learn and improve -- digs into the specifics to make sure we're up to date on the HOTtest tricks of the trade:
Staying hydrated is important no matter what you're doing, so I always try to drink eight glasses or about a liter of water a day. Soda isn't water. Coffee isn't water. Water is water. Drink throughout the day; don't try to get it all down at once. You wouldn't drown an orchid, so don't drown yourself.
I am putting in my formal request for a Public Service Announcement in this format, but using the last line of that passage. Also, Kelly clearly does not know how poorly I tend to my houseplants.
The next page informs us that, "hot isn't just caliente; it's also spicy and sultry." Kelly promptly launches into yet another list of miscellaneous grocery items, this time focused specifically on "red-hot foods." Except it includes entries like "popcorn with sugar and cinnamon," and "Mike and Ike candy," so I'm not convinced Kelly didn't just lose track of the thread entirely by the time we got a few items in. However, this does seem like an appropriate time to introduce this picture, from the book's second photo insert, which clearly depicts the sleep paralysis demon that has haunted my dreams for the past several nights. We're also treated to this chapter's first "hot button issue" panel, in which Kelly pulls back the curtain on the shadowy, pro-salt cabal trying to control us all with their anti-sodium legislative agenda:
We keep reading about how bad sodium is for our health, but if you eat fresh foods that you prepare yourself, you can determine and control the amount of salt you want to use. I, Kelly Killoren Bensimon, am perfectly capable of deciding how much salt I want to put on my food. I don't need anyone else to salt my food for me. I know that the amount of salt I choose to sprinkle on my food is not going to hurt me.
I read on to find a two-page spread in which Kelly expounds, in rhapsodic praise to rival that of Song of Solomon, upon her ardor for her beloved dehydrator -- "I though I was in love with coffee, but now I think my dehydrator is my truest love." Most of the passage is taken up by an unstructured list of the various things Kelly has attempted to dehydrate ("cucumber," "mangoes," "avocado") but she does manage to squeeze in a few infomercial-ready lines -- "Really, you should buy one; I promise you won't be sorry."
Since repetition is the key to reinforcing new concepts, I appreciate that Kelly's next list (of "a few more lean tricks I've learned along the way") repeats a note she originally relayed to us just a few pages ago:
Drink water throughout the day (not all at one sitting).
She's also been thoughtful enough to provide a list of resources for us to use as we soldier on along the perilous journey to HOT. After all, as Kelly says, "I don’t expect you to carry this book wherever you go -- as much as I would love that." As someone who has never before ventured into the wild world of cyberspace, I really appreciated Kelly introducing me to so many fun, useful websites that I might want to check out! In case you, too, just haven't figured out how to navigate this whole Internet thing, I've included a few examples below:
www.amazon.com
One-stop shopping for just about any book, periodical, or product you might want to read or buy in order to get HOT.

www.espn.com
Everything you need to know to stay up to date on any sport.

www.webmd.com
Useful, up-to-date, trustworthy information on medical and health issues.

www.yummly.com
Claims to have "every recipe in the world"
Can't wait to check these out later! That Amazon one sounds super cool!
I'm reminded quickly just how inelegant the transitions in this book are as we move directly from that list into the following:
I suggest that you take a picture of yourself every day…Some days when you're feeling your fattest, you may be surprised to see that you really look great.
Okay, so fat is NOT HOT. Except being comfortable in your body is HOT. And trying to be skinny is NOT HOT. But being skinny is HOT. Thank goodness I still have a few more chapters to go -- I clearly still have a ways to go before I truly understand the logic of HOTness. As it stands, I must admit that I'm a bit baffled.
Of course, returning to the previous bit of advice, Kelly doesn't actually have to worry about taking her own pictures like us plebeians -- "Having been photographed so often has provided me with a permanent retrospective catalogue of my life." The chapter closes with these words of wisdom:
The best kind of vanity is being vain about what you put in your body.
Friday's chapter promises to introduce us to the world of "Hot Couture," and I am excited to see what tips and tricks Kelly has managed to accrue over her lifetime in the cutthroat world of modeling . But first, we abruptly transition to a story about Kelly meeting Madonna shortly after both women had given birth. Kelly had "gained a healthy fifty pounds," which I am led to believe, from the context of the anecdote, is NOT HOT. Madonna, on the other hand, was "flat-stomached" and therefore "HOT and cool." Of course, Kelly reassures us hurriedly that she lost all the weight within the following six weeks and was "actually thinner than I'd been prepregnancy." I am at an utter loss as to what the point of this story could possibly be, but -- blessedly -- Kelly is gracious enough to explain:
So what's the lesson here? That Madonna had personal trainers and chefs to whip her back into shape, and I didn't -- and still don’t. I shouldn't have been comparing myself to her in the first place. My advice to you is: don’t compare yourself to anyone else, only to your own personal best.
This is a perfect example of something Kelly does throughout this book, which is to present a completely reasonable piece of advice (don’t compare yourself to others), but couched within such a bizarre and logically disorganized narrative that by the time I reach the ultimate moral of the story, my brain feels like it's been run through a series of meat grinders, and I'm reduced to just nodding along in bemused acceptance.
We get a "Kelly's Cardinal Rule" reminding us to "let your body be what your body is and be happy with what you've got." I'm starting to wonder if there is some sort of Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde thing going on behind the scenes here, in which two versions of Kelly are frantically grappling over control of the book's body-positivity dial. I'm literally don't even have to flip the page to see Kelly commiserating with us that "we all have days or occasions when we feel fat" and quipping about her "go-to fat outfit." But also:
Stop praying for what you don't have and be grateful for what you've got.
This amount of cognitive dissonance is truly proof that Kelly contains multitudes. Or has recently acquired some sort of debilitating short-term amnesia. Nevertheless, we continue:
But whatever your shape, show it off. Don’t try to hide it. Hiding is not hot.
Kelly next walks us through figuring out which "season" we are, based on the wisdom extolled in "Color Me Beautiful, the groundbreaking book that was so wildly successful in the early 80s." It's no surprise to me that Kelly, who earlier encouraged us to make our lives easier by using our PDAs, finds this to be an exciting new trend to share. Also, in case you weren't aware, "hair color is also important. You can lighten it or darken it or cover the gray." Lighten it or darken it? The boundaries of my mental universe are truly expanding.
Some more fashion tidbits:
Scarves are hippie chic, cool, and always HOT.

If you're narrow, show off how narrow you are with a monochromatic palette.

Ankles are the new cleavage!
Narrow ankles only, I presume. Kelly's selfless, giving nature is highlighted yet again in the following passage, in which she explains:
All these celebrities have stylists who pull the clothes, accessories, and shoes that make them look the way they do. They charge a lot of money for what they do, so why not get some free advice based on my experience.
And what, pray tell, is this coveted advice that Kelly is so lovingly sharing with her readers, free of charge?
  1. Save sweatpants for the gym.
  2. Save PJs for the bedroom.
  3. Dress as if you were the boss.
  4. Remember what Carrie Bradshaw says: "Nothing is casual anymore, even when it says so on the invitation."
  5. Manolo Blahniks are a girl's best friend.
Okay, so far be it from me to complain about the quality of free advice. But. Out of the five pearls of wisdom that make up the "KKBStyle Rules," two of them are rudimentary instructions to wear somewhat-situationally-appropriate clothing, and the other three are the kind of cute sayings that you would find on a piece of poorly bedazzled wall art in the clearance aisle of your local TJMaxx. I'm not impressed.
Kelly next tells us how important it is to eat well and exercise, even "when you're premenstrual or having your period." That way, as she continues on, "you'll feel better because your endorphins will be flowing while your body is sloughing off unwanted endometrium and mucus." To be fair, Unwanted Endometrium does sound like a sick band name.
Thankfully, the mental image of Kelly's mucus slough is promptly booted from my mind by a careening diatribe about the color red (HOT!):
I even painted my nails red the minute I started writing this book. I wanted to see my short red nails tapping away on my Macbook Pro. Almost every red dress is smokin' HOT, and I've never met a guy who doesn't think a woman in a red dress isn't hot. He's a liar if he denies it.
To repeat, Kelly says she's "never met a guy who doesn’t think a woman in a red dress isn't hot." Poor dear got a bit carried away with her negatives, but I'm sure she'll redeem herself in no time:
When I was sitting in the front row of a Marc Jacobs fashion show a few years ago, I wore a full, red short skirt, a tight red sweater, and red open-toed shoes. One of the editors from The New York Times was sitting across from me, and as we were waiting for the show to begin I kept crossing and recrossing my legs to make him laugh.
Sure, Kelly. To make him laugh. I can only assume she must have written some kind of hilariously clever joke on the gusset of her underwear to have had this editor so tickled pink red.
It was a long wait and after a while some guy I didn't know who was at the other end of the row, leapt towards me and screamed that he was obsessed with my feet. How crazy is it that red open-toed shoes and red toenails could create such a reaction. Red is HOT, even stalker HOT. Yikes!
I'm not clear where "stalker HOT" fits into this whole complex web, but it's reassuring to know that a wise soul like Kelly has such a nuanced appreciation of all of the different ways to be hot. She also gives us some "HOT tips for heating up your image." Like,
Put on a pair of jeans and a white tee shirt.

Put your hair in a ponytail.

Put on a pair of hoop earrings.
And also
Wear your jeans a size smaller instead of a size larger.
For some reason not entirely clear to me at this moment, wearing jeans in your actual size does not seem to be an option.
The chapter continues with a reminder to "remember what's on top of your head!"
There's nothing hotter than a HOT head of hair (unless it's a hunky bald guy).
Kelly follows up by offering a list of what she calls "HOT healthy options." Based on the preceding paragraph, you might assume that these tips would have something to do with haircare and hair styling. However, you would be wrong. Instead, we're instructed to:
Enjoy as much watermelon as you like.

Pack a picnic lunch of dehydrated fruit, chamomile iced tea, and mini pizzas made with corn tortillas, cherry tomatoes, and mozzarella cheese. Eat your picnic in the park.

Come up with something fun you want to try and do it!
Personally, it seems like a bit of a cop-out to make one of the items on your list of fun things to do "make up your own fun thing to do." But who knows? Maybe cop-outs are HOT!
Before my faith in our fearless leader starts to waver, however, I read on through the end of the chapter, and my surety is promptly restored:
Besides my hair and my legs, the one thing people always ask me about the way I look is how I keep my teeth so white. And yes, that's also a matter of genetics. I'm blessed with the whitest teeth on the planet, and, no, I've never had them professionally bleached.
The weekend begins as I turn the page to the penultimate chapter -- "Saturday: Heat Up Your HOT Image with Healthy Options Today." Saturdays, as Kelly tells us, are for fun activities. For example:
If you're in the mall, go to different stores and figure out which looks will make you HOT. Ask other shoppers for advice.
Also:
Parks are great for people-watching. Who looks fit and healthy?
I sincerely hope that any and all of my friends would give me a stern talking-to if I informed them that my weekend plans consisted of going to a park and…pointing out people I think aren't healthy enough?
Kelly then warns us against overindulging on late-night snacks or alcoholic beverages, lest we wake up Sunday feeling "bloating, sluggish, and with deep regrets." Presumably, Kelly then proceeded to rail a massive line of cocaine and hammer out the following frenetic spiel:
You're not going to get fat from having a few drinks a week. You will get fat if your routine is to drink, eat late, and then lie around watching television the next day, eating and making bad food choices. Going out is fun, but when you sacrifice the next day, it's never fun enough. Don't have regrets; enjoy every day. This is a life plan, and yesterday isn't coming back ever again.
The chapter comes to a close with a reminder to "wrap up every day with a great big bow and be ready for your next adventure. But before we close out our week of HOT, we're provided with what I anticipate will be an incredibly useful reference material for us all, the "KKBfit HOT Quiz." If you'd like to take the quiz yourself, you can find it here. However, I'm not entirely sure I would classify it as a "quiz," since it seems to be mostly a set of questions followed by Kelly's feedback on various possible responses. For example:
  1. How Kelly Green are you?
I had a Kelly Green Juice -- Wasn't it yummy?
I had a smoothie from the health food store with a splash of spinach -- Great choice!
I had kale chips, spinach, and quinoa for dinner last night -- I bet you woke up feeling great this morning!
Other?
I presume that the lack of response after the "Other?" choice is supposed to represent Kelly staring at me in deranged disappointment for a few painfully protracted seconds. Some questions, like the one above, don't seem to have any wrong answers at all. In contrast, other questions have clear wrong answers, which Kelly wastes no time in making apparent:
  1. Are you getting enough protein? How many days did you eat chicken, fish, or meat for at least one meal?
I had a grilled chicken salad for dinner on three different days -- That's good, but I wish you'd get a little more adventurous in your choices.

  1. How KKBfit are you?
Haven't had a meal since last night, but I'm going to skip breakfast and go on a run. I won't eat anything until lunch. -- Sorry, but starving your body is not KKBfit.

  1. Are you drinking enough?
I drink when I'm exercising but that's about it -- Not good enough! Try harder next week.
The quiz ends, leaving me entirely unsure of whether or not I've actually made any forward progress towards my HOTness goals, but the next page does promise help for those who "still need more inspiration." Here, it seems that Kelly has compiled a loose assortment of quotes, most of which (I have a sneaking suspicion) were found by searching the keyword "hot" on BrainyQuote.com. Also, this masterpiece from Kelly's ex-husband, noted fashion photographer Gilles Bensimon:
HOT--
It is not about the look,
It is not only about the charm,
It is the perfect combination:
Sweet and tough,
Sexy and reserved,
Fragile and powerful,
And definitely smart.
-- Gilles Bensimon
Move over, Rupi Kaur! I hope with every fiber of my being that Gilles Bensimon has published his collected poetry in some kind of volume that I could purchase, read, and have, I'm sure, nothing but positive things to say about. After about a dozen similar quotations, Kelly continues:
Now, as you get ready for Sunday Funday, take a few minutes to think about how you define HOT. Has your definition changed or evolved since you started reading this book? If so, I'm doing my job.
In all honesty, my definition of HOT has definitely been…affected by this experience. So we'll call that a win! Kelly tells us a few stories about times when her friends and family members have come to her for guidance on how to be hot. She explains:
I'm not the food police, but I've made myself the Sven-arbiter (as opposed to Svengali) of what's HOT and what's not.
Case in point:
It's just not hot to belong to the clean plate club.
The chapter closes with a list titled "Why Don't You," which I believe is supposed to be a list of fun activities we can try during a Sunday Funday. Or possibly a list of terrible life hacks for stoned college freshmen:
Use an electric teapot as a clothing steamer.

Make grilled cheese sandwiches or press wraps using a hot clothes iron.
There are very few things sadder to me that imagining someone taking Kelly up on this last bit of advice as a fun way to liven up what must be the most preternaturally boring existence possible. If your idea of fun is white bread and Kraft Singles getting slowly warmed over on your clothing iron, I can only imagine the fit of hysterics that you'd be thrown into by a passable Minions meme.
And that brings us to the end of the week. But not -- lucky you! -- to the end of this book. Au contraire -- the remaining 100 pages or so of I Can Make You Hot! feature dozens of unique recipes from the culinary mind of none other than the indomitable Kelly Bensimon herself. In her intro, however, she makes it clear that
No one on earth would ever call me a chef.
Of course not, Kelly -- they'd call you a cook. Otherwise, it's creepy.
This portion of the book begins, reasonably enough, with Breakfasts. These include such thoughtfully named delicacies as "My Favorite Cereal" and "My Favorite Pancakes." The recipe for the latter begins with the following introduction:
I'm not the greatest pancake maker, and I probably never will be. But what I am very good at is thinking of unusual things and doing them.
Frankly, I can't argue with that. As she continues:
When in pancake doubt, have fun, add fruit, and see if pancakes can be a vehicle for creating great memories for your family.
Next time I'm in pancake doubt, I'll know just what to do! We move right along into the Soups and Salads section, and are promptly introduced to Kelly's "Jimmy Achoo's Chicken Soup." Which is apparently a play on Jimmy Choo and also described by Kelly as "filled with veggie exploitation," which sounds terrifying. Of the next recipe, "Rich and Skinny Cauliflower Soup with Kale Chips," Kelly reflects:
I adapted this recipe from one I found on the Internet. I wish I could tell you exactly where, but I can't.
The recipe calls for kale chips, which Kelly goes out of her way to inform us can be purchased "at health food stores and many well-stocked supermarkets." We also get a few general "HOT salad tips" that can be applied to many of the recipes throughout this book, such as
There are so many different types of lettuces available today! Try different ones to see which you like best
and
When you order a salad in a restaurant, ask for the dressing on the side. You're a grown-up and you should get to decide how much you want to use.
With that under our belts, the grown-ups among us move on to "Meat, Chicken, and Fish." In her recipe for "Grilled Rib Eye with Herbes de Provence", Kelly tells us about meeting the famous chef who inspired this dish:
When I met Eric, who was still in his thirties at the time, he still had dark hair. I was caught off guard because I thought all chefs were older, had gray hair, and smelled like garlic.
So perhaps Bethenny should have taken it as a compliment? Kelly continues,
He's since invited me many times to go into his kitchen and cook with him, but my fear of losing a finger by being overzealous has prohibited me from accepting.
It's unclear to me exactly what this means or why Kelly would even be particularly worried about this possibility. Does she have habit of excitedly snatching vegetables out from other people's knives? Does Eric have a reputation for slicing anyone who dares to get in his way? Before I make any headway with this particular mystery, we're introduced to the next recipe, the "Pencil-Thin Skirt Steak." As we learn, "Everyone looks slim in a pencil skirt, so it's only fitting that skirt steak is one of the leanest cuts of beef you can buy." We get a recipe for "Sultry Roast Chicken" in which Kelly shares with us that "in fact, chicken without ginger doesn't taste like chicken to me anymore." This would be more believable if we weren't, a mere two pages later, introduced to a notably ginger-free recipe for "Second-Chance Chicken." As Kelly explains,
I hate the idea of leftovers. To me, eating leftovers means you're too lazy to start over, and I've never wanted my girls to think that we weren't starting fresh.
In the introduction to the recipe for "Bad Girl Wings," Kelly gives us yet another poignant insight into her life as a mother:
These chicken wings are Sea's favorite. I'm sure she loves them because she knows I love wings (she's a cutie like that).
It would obviously be ludicrous to assume that Sea actually enjoys chicken wings authentically. Much more likely that she just loves them because Kelly does. HOT! In a segment labeled "hasta la vista taco bell," Kelly recounts a traumatic experience in which she "discovered that my favorite food choices [at Taco Bell] added up to 580 calories." To me, this seems like a perfectly reasonable amount of calories for one daily meal out of three, but according to Kelly, I am embarrassingly off the mark. Rather, she sighs, "I guess that means my Taco Bell days are over -- unless I decide to chance [sic] Sunday Funday into Fatso Food Day." Not HOT.
Kelly tells us about the creative process behind the development of the next recipe, "Spicy Sultry Shrimp and Mango Stir-Fry" (which, for the record, is the second recipe to have the word "sultry" in its title).
This was one of the first dishes I made when I started to cook -- as a science experiment. My "method" was to think of foods I loved and which ones I thought would go well together.
Fascinating! Think of ingredients you like and combine them into a dish that you will then likely also like! The next recipe, for "Kelly's Kalamari," features the following introduction:
I still love fried calamari, but it doesn't love me. Whenever I eat it, it goes right to my stomach and makes a little pooch -- eww!
As a reminder, this is the same Kelly Bensimon who told us that loving our bodies is HOT and dieting is die + t. But also, eww!
We trek along into the next portion of the recipe book, succinctly titled "Pizza, Pasta, Potatoes, Grains, Vegetables, and Sides." We get a recipe for "Pizzzzzzzza!," which instructs the reader to obtain pizza dough, pizza sauce, mozzerella cheese, salt and pepper. Spread out the dough, add sauce and cheese, and cook! This is yet another time I'm glad Kelly told us early on in this book to take detailed notes -- these kinds of nuanced culinary creations can only come from the mind of a true master.
The same kind of true master who would, as we soon learn, conceive of this particular travesty -- "Pink Pizza." Imagine with me, for a moment, that a dear friend invites you over to their house for dinner. I'm making pizza! they implore you. Come over -- we'll hang out, have a couple beers, catch up on old times! Excited for a chance to relive the glory days, you eagerly accept, only to be met -- upon your arrival -- with this abomination. I thought you said we were having pizza? you sputter nervously. This is pizza, your friend intones, as their eyes slowly fade to black and their hands reach out to wrap themselves around your throat.
Kelly goes on to share a recipe for an "Asian-flavored noodle dish" that she has christened (and it truly pains me to type this), "Me Love You Springtime Noodles." Somewhere, the last ember of hope for humanity quietly fizzles out.
The following recipe, for "Pasta with Oddkavodka Sauce" begins with a warning:
When you make this (especially for children) just be sure you cook off the alcohol so that you aren't serving vodka to minors or have to assign a designated driver for your guests.
This seems like reasonable and conscientious advice. Until I read on and learn that the recipe calls for 1/8 cup vodka, and makes four servings. If your guests need a designated driver after consuming a half-tablespoon of vodka each, I would strongly encourage them to seek medical advice forthwith.
I am reminded once again how different Kelly's and my worlds are with the following exclamation:
Try using quinoa in this recipe instead of the rice -- I call that having your cake and eating it too!
Oh, to live a life in which your most selfish indulgence was quinoa. I suppose this should have prepared me for a few pages later, when Kelly remarks:
Both hummus and guacamole make great toppings for steak or fish. They're my version of béarnaise sauce.
I love hummus. Hummus is great. But there is no possible existing parallel universe in which hummus and béarnaise sauce are interchangeable. One of the final recipes in this section is cryptically titled "Have an Impromptu Pepper Party" and instructs the reader to scoop out the insides of a bell pepper and stuff it with "whatever ingredients suit your fancy." Again, I feel like this fails to meet the definition of an actual recipe, per se, but it is supposedly "quick, fun, and satisfying."
We're nearing the book's end (for real this time) with a section on "Breads and Desserts." This includes an inspirational passage in which Kelly shares a personal anecdote:
On Season 4 of the Real Housewives of New York City, I made a mixed fruit pie for my kids with what was left over in the fruit bowl…Don't be afraid to try new things, make mistakes, and have fun doing it.
I can only hope to someday be brave enough and fearless enough to make a mixed fruit pie.
Blessedly, the final section , titled "Beverages", looks like it might have exactly what I need in the aftermath of finishing this book. The "GIN-Ginger Beertail," for example, which "was originally made with gin, but I don't like serving gin drinks because I think it makes people mean." We also get a recipe for something called "Babylove," which (thankfully) seems unrelated to another of my favorite reality TV cesspools.
It only seems appropriate to share the final recipe of I Can Make You Hot! with all of you. I will definitely be downing approximately seven of these tonight, and I hope some of you will be joining me in spirit. Cheers:
Gummi Bear Martini
If you don't have a paper umbrella handy, Gummi Bears are a great way to put more fun in your drink.
Makes 1 Drink
2 parts orange, grape, or other-flavored vodka
1 part Triple Sec
1 part white grape juice
Splash of cranberry juice
Gummi Bears, as many as you like
Combine the vodka, Triple Sec, grape juice, and cranberry juice in a tall glass. Add ice and fill the glass with Gummi Bears.
ETA: I am so disappointed in myself for forgetting to include that Kelly has a ceviche recipe that instructs you to marinate raw fish in lemon juice for exactly two minutes before serving. In the interest of food safety, perhaps it was for the best that this nugget momentarily slipped my mind, but sharing this information with you all is the burden I have been cursed to bear. 🙏🏼
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