WA Government - Lockdown Information WA Government Infographic - Summary WA Health - Locations visited by confirmed cases HealthyWA - COVID Clinic Locations / Operating Hours Lockdown Rules Summary (ABC News) ABC COVID Live Blog - Sunday 31/01 Premier's Annoucement: --- IMPORTANT UPDATE REGARDING COMMUNITY CASE OF COVID-19 IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA, AND PERTH, PEEL AND SOUTH-WEST FIVE-DAY LOCKDOWN ---
This morning, I convened an urgent meeting of the Emergency Management Team.
We have a serious update to provide the WA community.
This morning we received news of a positive COVID-19 test result.
That positive result has come from a male hotel quarantine security guard, in his 20s.
The information we have is fast-evolving. As you can understand, immediately our teams moved into place to begin contact tracing and put in place emergency response systems.
This is all underway, and I ask everyone to be cooperative and understanding of what is going to take place.
Here is what we know about the male who tested positive:
He was working at one of the State’s hotel quarantine facilities – the Sheraton Four Points in the city. He had tested negative for COVID-19 on January Friday 15, January Sunday 17 and Saturday January 23 – as part of the weekly testing system in place. When the man was working at this hotel, there were four active cases of COVID-19. Of those four cases, we have at least three confirmed variant strains, two UK and one South African. We are told the guard was working on the same floor, as a positive UK variant case. The guard completed two 12-hours shifts on both the 26th and 27th of January. Exactly how the infection was acquired remains under investigation.
The Health Department contact tracing team has pulled together a list of potential exposure sites of where this positive case has been in recent days. These locations currently include:
- Coles Maylands supermarket on 25 January from 8pm to 10pm
- KFC Maylands on 27 January from 6pm to midnight
- Mitsubishi Motors car dealership in Midland on 27 January from 7pm to close
- Spudshed, Coventry Village in Morley on 27 January from 8pm to midnight
- ECU Joondalup on 28 January from 11am to 2pm
- Consulate General of India on St Georges Terrace in Perth on 28 January from 12pm to 5pm
- Halal Grocery Store in Cloverdale on 28 January from 7pm to 9pm
- Venus Ladies and Gentleman Hair Design Maylands hairdressers on 29 January from 1pm to 3pm
- Perth Convention Centre on 29 January from 4pm to 6pm
- Nedlands Family Practice GP surgery on 29 January from 5pm to 6pm
- Chemist Warehouse North Perth Pharmacy on 29 January from 5.30pm to 7.30pm
- 7-Eleven Ascot petrol station on 29 January from 8pm to 9pm
- Coles Maylands supermarket on 29 January from 8pm 9pm
- Puma Service Station in Burswood on 30 January from 11am to 12 midday.
- Coles Express/Shell Service Station in Cloverdale on 30 January from 12 midday to 3pm
- Pharmacy 777 at Maylands Park Shopping Centre 30 January from 2.30pm to 4pm.
People who have been to these venues on these dates and times must get tested.
In addition, people who live or work in the Falkirk Avenue, Maylands area including Coles, Liquorland and the Maylands shopping precinct should present for a test. They must then go home and isolate until their negative test results are returned.
The investigation is on-going by our public health team, and it is likely more locations will be added following further discussions with the man.
Close contacts will be contacted by public health officials and asked to quarantine for 14 days.
More information on testing clinics will be available on our website – the WA Health and WA Gov websites.
The man’s immediate household contacts have been contacted, tested and placed in isolation at State managed quarantine facilities to complete a 14-day quarantine period in a quarantine facility.
All three have tested negative this morning. However, we can expect that they will become positive in coming days.
Genome sequencing is underway on the positive case and results will be known by Tuesday morning.
However, based on the information we have, it appears possible that this new positive case has the highly transmissible UK variant.
The past year has been unlike any other – Western Australia has done an incredible job. It’s something I am so proud of.
But as we have always known with COVID – it can change very quickly.
Today – we need to go back to what we know best, to ensure we limit community transmission of COVID-19 in our State.
Even though it was nearly 10 months ago – WA has experienced community transmission of this virus before.
We all did the right thing and we crushed it.
And it worked.
So beginning at 6pm tonight, the whole Perth metropolitan area, the Peel region and the South West region will be going into a full lockdown.
This lockdown will run until 6pm on Friday.
A five-day lockdown.
It’s crucial we act quickly, to keep the community safe.
We cannot forget how quickly this virus can spread, nor the devastation it can cause.
Following our discussions with the Chief Health Officer and Police Commissioner, the following measures will be put in place from 6pm for people in Perth, Peel and the South West:
People in these regions are required to stay home, except for the following four reasons:
- Shopping for essentials like groceries, medicine and necessary supplies.
- Medical or health care needs including compassionate requirements and looking after the vulnerable.
- Exercise, within their neighbourhood, but only with one other person and only for one hour per day.
- Work, where you cannot work from home or remotely.
In addition to this Stay Home rule.
If you do leave home, for one of the four reasons you will be required to wear a mask at all times outside and if you need to work indoors, then wearing a mask in the workplace is also mandatory.
To be clear, mask wearing on public transport is also mandatory.
People in the Perth, Peel or South West region need to stay inside their region for the next five days, unless for an essential reason.
We are strongly encouraging that everyone in this area, who is from another WA region, stay here and do not travel further outside of this area until the lockdown is over.
If you do need to travel outside the region you are in now, that can only occur if you need to return to your place of residence or exceptional circumstances.
The transport of essential goods into this region, is permitted, under our existing transport guidelines.
This lockdown means the following businesses, venues and locations in the relevant regions need to close for the next five days:
- Pubs, bars and clubs
- Gyms and indoor sporting venues
- Playgrounds, skate parks and outdoor recreational facilities
- Cinemas, entertainment venues, and casinos
- Large religious gatherings and places of worship
- Libraries and cultural institutions
Restaurants and cafes will close, and provide takeaway service only.
10 people can attend funerals, weddings are cancelled for the next five days.
No visitors are permitted to your home, unless caring for someone vulnerable or an emergency.
No visitors will be allowed in aged care homes, unless exceptional circumstances.
No visitors to hospitals and/or disability facilities, unless exceptional circumstances.
Elective surgery and procedures for categories 2 and 3 will be suspended from Tuesday, 2 February. Category 1 and urgent category 2 surgery will continue.
For a majority of schools in these regions, school was due to start tomorrow.
That has now been put on hold and schools will be closed until next week – following the lockdown measures.
It is, in effect, an extension of the school holidays.
I have been in contact with the Prime Minister and my fellow State and Territory colleagues to advise them of this situation.
I have recommended that they put a stop to any travel into WA – as an extra precautionary measure.
Border controls are important here – and I 100% support them to ensure we can get through this.
All these measures will be reviewed regularly and the Chief Health Officer will continue to monitor the serious situation and provide more ongoing advice. This is an extremely fast-moving situation.
I know for many Western Australians this is going to come as a shock.
Western Australians have done so well for so long but this week it is absolutely crucial that we stay home, maintain physical distancing and personal hygiene and get tested if you have symptoms.
This is a very serious situation and each and every one of us has to do everything we personally can to help stop the spread in the community.
We have acted decisively and swiftly given these circumstances.
I want to thank everyone in advance for their patience.
In effect, for a short period of time, we are going back to what we experienced in March and April.
This is a highly unpredictable virus. But it is important to act calmly and take sensible precautions.
Leaving your home to purchase food and essentials will be permitted during the lockdown.
I say this, so people understand that you do not need to rush to the supermarket today.
Take care of your loved ones and be respectful of others including those who are working, to keep essential services and supplies ticking over.
Our State is well equipped to handle this situation.
We have systems in place throughout the health system that are swinging into action as we speak.
We have the capacity to manage this situation.
Throughout the pandemic, the response of Western Australians has been second-to-none.
The community has done everything we have asked of them.
They have made great sacrifices, and it has kept our State safe.
I could not be more proud and thankful of the way Western Australians have carried themselves.
Now we’re asking for your help once again.
We will provide further updates as they come to hand.
All relevant information will be posted on websites as it comes to hand.
Thank you WA.
submitted by While vaccines are starting to be administered in several countries, the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation continues to have a major effect on travel, with many now looking to understand if, when, or how their travels might be feasible. Accordingly,
/travel is continue its megathreads on a monthly basis until the crisis dissipates.
In the interest of reducing the number of one-off questions,
before you post a question about how to deal with your individual travel plans, consider whether your situation is adequately addressed by the following: Are borders open? What entry or transit restrictions are in place? Will I need to quarantine?
A list of travel restrictions can be found in a number of sources, including from
IATA,
Kayak's travel restriction map, or
this alternative site that draws information from IATA. Note that IATA only deals with travel restrictions by air (so it will not speak to any land border restrictions or closures).
You may also do well to check out government and embassy sources from the destination country (and sometimes from your own embassy in the destination country).
Because information can change on short notice, it is important to verify the latest information, ideally from government sources. ...in the US?
At the time of writing,
foreign nationals are prohibited from entering or transiting the US if they have been in or transited via Brazil, China, Iran, Ireland, the Schengen Area, South Africa, or the UK in the preceding 14 days. Exceptions to this rule include green card holders.
Note that (except for, of course, US citizens) this is not a citizenship-based restriction; it is purely based on travel history. All air passengers (including US citizens and green card holders), regardless of origin and nationality,
need to produce a negative result from a viral test taken within 3 days of the first flight on a single ticket to the US. The land borders with Mexico and Canada are closed to all except those travelling for essential purposes, but
air, rail, and sea (but not commuter rail or ferry) ports-of-entry remain open to non-essential travel.
No nationwide quarantine requirements exist, although an executive order signed on Jan. 21 hinted at the possibility of one being instituted, should the CDC recommend it. Nevertheless, individual states and/or cities may have their own requirements, even for domestic travel, so you will need to confirm with information from your destination state or city. As an example,
this is New York State's travel advisory/quarantine page; note that
travelers are permitted to break quarantine to leave New York State and the state's quarantine restrictions would not prevent you from boarding a connecting flight.
For more information, see
the US CDC's COVID-19 page.
...in Canada?
At the time of writing,
foreign nationals are barred from entering Canada unless they are traveling for certain, mostly essential reasons,
regardless of mode of travel. Those traveling from countries other than the US must also fulfill one of several additional categories of exemptions. Those who are permitted to travel to Canada for non-essential purposes include – aside from Canadians – permanent residents and certain family members of Canadians and permanent residents. Note that Canadian airlines will be halting flights to Mexico and the Caribbean. Those wishing to travel to Canada on compassionate reasons may do so provided they receive authorization from the Public Health Agency of Canada. Fully airside international transits are typically permitted.
All passengers five years or older arriving into Canada by air will also need to
produce a negative result from a PCR test taken within 72 hours prior to boarding the last direct flight to Canada. Alternatively, you may submit a positive COVID-19 molecular test taken between 14 and 90 days prior to departure. Passengers will soon be required to quarantine at hotels for at least three days, pending negative test results, in one of four cities – Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal – that will serve as the only ports-of-entry by air. After being permitted to exit hotel quarantine, which is expected to cost approx. C$2000 per passenger, travelers must continue to self-quarantine until 14 days after arrival.
For more information, see
the Canadian government's COVID-19 travel restrictions page.
...in Mexico?
At the time of writing, there are no changes to Mexico's standard entry requirements. However, the land border with the United States is officially closed to all except those travelling for essential purposes. Travelers must fill out a "Questionnaire of Identification of Risk Factors in Travelers", available here, to present upon arrival. There are no quarantine requirements upon arrival in Mexico.
For more information, see information provided by Mexican embassies, including the
Mexican Embassy in the Netherlands.
...in the UK?
At the time of writing,
foreign nationals are barred from entering the UK if they have entered or transited South America, Panama, the UAE, or several countries in southern Africa within the previous 10 days are not permitted to enter the UK. The
full "red list" of countries is subject to change. Irish citizens and those with UK resident permits are, in addition to UK nationals, exempted from this restriction. Starting Feb. 15, those eligible to enter from the "red list" of countries will be required to quarantine for 10 days in designated hotels.
All international arrivals (including UK citizens) will need to quarantine for 10 days after arrival. However, the quarantine period can be shortened further in England if you
test negative at least 5 days into the quarantine period. Note that, even if one is required to quarantine, one is typically permitted to leave the UK to continue their travels before their 10-day quarantine period is complete. Those coming from the countries and regions mentioned in the previous paragraph are also not eligible to participate in the test-to-release scheme.
All travelers destined for Scotland from outside the Common Travel Area
must produce a negative result from a test taken within three days of departure. A
similar requirement also applies to those destined or transiting through England.
With "lockdown" measures in place within the UK, there may be restrictions on travel purposes to, from, or within the constituent countries. For example,
travel to and from Scotland is prohibited except for limited purposes.
For more information, see
UK Border Control.
...in the EU? In the Schengen Area?
In late June, the European Commission recommended that external borders be reopened to short-term visitors arriving from several countries deemed to have adequately maintained the virus. This
list has been updated, as of Dec. 16, to consist of Australia, China (subject to confirmation of reciprocity), Japan, New Zealand, Rwanda, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. This list, however, is non-binding among member countries and is subject to change.
Nevertheless, several countries within the EU or the Schengen Area have used this list as guidance, permitting arrivals from these countries as well as "EU+" countries (which includes EU and Schengen countries, and sometimes the UK). These restrictions typically are not based on nationality but rather travel history and/or residency; consult resources from your destination country. However, multiple EU countries have temporarily placed additional restrictions on travel from specific countries (e.g. the UK) or have reinstated broad restrictions for those from outside the EU, the Schengen Area, or their own countries due to discoveries of new COVID variants. Fully airside non-Schengen to non-Schengen transits are typically permitted, but confirm and consult resources from your transit country to see if further documentation (which may, at times, include negative test results) is required.
As the various EU and Schengen countries have opened their external borders to third-country nationals in various ways and with different exceptions, it is imperative that travelers check the entry requirements for their ports-of-entry. A summary of travel restrictions is
provided by the European Union, but many have reported that government (e.g. embassy or foreign ministry) resources have been more detailed and accurate.
...in South Korea?
At the time of writing,
most nationalities with visa-free or visa-waiver arrangements with Korea have had their visa-free/waiver status suspended, primarily on the basis of the reciprocal entry restrictions for Korean citizens. There are also additional entry and transit restrictions of those traveling from China.
International arrivals, with very few exceptions, will be required to quarantine for 14 days; non-residents will be required to quarantine in government facilities at their own expense.
For more information, see the
Korea Immigration Service.
...in Japan?
At the time of writing, foreign nationals who have been in one of 150+ countries for purposes other than transit are not permitted to enter Japan. Further, visas and visa exemptions for nationals from many countries have been suspended. Permanent residents, long-term residents, and spouses and children of Japanese citizens may be exempt from these entry restrictions provided they meet certain conditions.
Those individuals, including Japanese citizens, that are permitted to enter Japan will be required to undergo a 14-day quarantine. All travelers will be required to provide proof of a negative result from a test taken within 72 hours of departure for Japan. Additional restrictions are in place for those travelling from the UK or South Africa.
For more information, see the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan.
When will borders reopen or travel restrictions be lifted? Is it safe/a good idea to book travel for a particular time months ahead?
It is, of course, impossible to say when travel restrictions are lifted for every country. Where no news has been officially provided, it is often very difficult to predict as countries will make decisions based on the progress of the pandemic – which is an unknown – as well as other pressures (e.g. economic or social).
Consider that the progress of the pandemic and efforts to combat it are unpredictable. Even with the vaccine rollouts, it's unclear how this will affect travel restrictions and procedures. In the meantime, with the resurgences of cases in several countries, the new variants recently discovered in several countries, and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere winter, some countries have firmed up travel restrictions, requiring additional tests or quarantine periods or preventing travel from certain locations. Further, even if you are ultimately able to travel to your destination, there may be "lockdowns" or widespread closures of businesses and places of interest.
Realize that you are taking a risk by deciding to speculatively book travel in the hopes that travel restrictions will be lifted by the time you travel, or even will remain as liberal as they are in your destination today. With this unprecedented situation, old adages about when it's best to purchase airfare may no longer be valid. In any event, be aware of the policies of your airlines and accommodations for credits and/or refunds should you need to reschedule or cancel.
Further, understand that airlines may make it very difficult to receive a refund, even if legally required. Many travelers have reported waiting months to receive refunds on cancelled flights or otherwise being stonewalled when requesting a refund. And be aware that if your airline goes out of business, your funds could be lost forever.
Take note of your jurisdiction's laws regarding refunds for cancelled flights. For example:
So should I cancel a trip that I've already booked? And how? Will insurance help?
These questions were covered at length in the
second megathread. Although countries may be starting to "reopen", the points therein are still relevant.
Previous related megathreads: Semi-monthly megathreads: Monthly megathreads: Updated January 8, 2020
DISCLAIMER: I wear my mask, wash my hands and try not to touch my face. I limit my social interactions. I follow most rules, even though many don't make sense. This is NOT a “COVID hoax” or “anti-vaxxer” post.
I agreed with lockdown measures that were taken in March 2020, when a lot was unknown. We did not have full knowledge of whom the virus affected and we did not have better treatment measures.
But science and data over the last 10 months has clearly shown that our approach needs to change.
“Where all think alike, no one thinks very much” Walter Lippmann, 2-time Pulitzer Prize winner SO WHO IS COVID DEADLY FOR? Data from government public health websites.
PUBLIC HEALTH CANADA
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... s.html#fn1 Out of 16435 COVID related deaths in Canada, 89.2% are in the 70+ age group. Percentage of COVID deaths in the 0-49 age group: 1.1% (this is a total of 192 COVID related deaths in Canada) NOTE: It is important to make the distinction that just because someone dies WITH COVID does not mean that they died BECAUSE of COVID. COVID deaths may be inflated due to this distinction. False positive cases may further inflate this number (more on this later). LONG TERM CARE HOMES
https://ltc-covid19-tracker.ca 70.3% of all COVID related deaths in Canada have been in long term care homes
PUBLIC HEALTH ALBERTA
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-a ... istics.htm Average age of COVID-related death in Alberta: 82 years old. Out of 1241 COVID related deaths in Alberta, 97.1% have had 1 or more co-morbidities. Here is the breakdown: * 3 or more comorbidities: 75.0% * 2 comorbidities: 14.4% * 1 comorbidity: 7.7% * No comorbidity: 2.9% (highly likely to be in the older age demographic)
NOTE: Comorbidities included are: Diabetes, Hypertension, COPD, Cancer, Dementia, Stroke, Liver Cirrhosis, Cardiovascular diseases (including IHD and Congestive heart failure), Chronic Kidney disease, and Immuno-deficiency. STATSCAN REPORT: COVID 19 DEATH COMORBIDITIES IN CANADA (from the first wave, until July 31, 2020)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45- ... 87-eng.htm - 90% of all COVID-involved deaths had at least 1 comorbidity.
- ALL COVID-involved deaths in Canada under the age of 45 had at least 1 other disease/condition certified on the medical certificate of death.
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? We must acknowledge that these stats are all people and each number represents a human loss. We are all empathetic to that.
Now, the data clearly states the obvious: 1. A LARGE majority of COVID related deaths have and are still occurring in long term care homes. 2. COVID is a deadly threat to persons with co-morbidities and/or persons above the age of 70. It is not a LONE killer by itself. Note that any disease is dangerous to this population set, not just COVID. 3. For a healthy person below the age of 70, there is greater than 99% chance of COVID recovery. This is no worse than the flu.
This is all good news, because we know who COVID affects and who we desperately need to protect. We also have other good news…
GOOD NEWS #1: VITAMIN D3 DATA Vitamin D acts a key function for strengthening our immune system and is primarily acquired through sunlight exposure. There is a strong correlation that a Vitamin D deficiency will likely result in a serious case of a COVID infection, lowering hospitalizations, deaths and long-term COVID effects.
Vitamin D3 was shown to be deficient in 80% of hospitalized COVID patients in Spain [2].
The most comprehensive scientific study of Vitamin D deficiency in correlation to COVID patients was conducted in India over a span of 6 weeks [3]. Out of 154 patients, 63 severe cases needed ICU. Out of these, 61 patients (97%) had a Vitamin D deficiency. Overall, India has shown to have a lower strain of COVID, possibly because Vitamin D deficiency hits a much lower percentage of the population (due to more sunlight).
The UK government has already promoted Vitamin D to the entire population and is giving out free vitamin D handouts to persons most at risk for COVID [4].
4000 IU daily is recommended to create a strong immune response to COVID [5].
GOOD NEWS #2: BETTER COVID TREATMENTS Doctors have improved the mortality rates of severe COVID cases, using better ICU procedures. A person hospitalized in March 2020 was 3 times more likely to die than someone hospitalized in August 2020 [6].
GOOD NEWS #3: ASYMPTOMATIC % At least 17% of the population is estimated to be asymptomatic to COVID [7]. Many are immune to the danger of COVID.
The converse argument, of course, is the possible asymptomatic spread of infection which is difficult to detect. However, if an asymptomatic person does not interact with the vulnerable portion of the population, then what difference does it make?
Instead, why not focus on controlling spread in the SMALLER vulnerable demographic where it really matters?
BAD NEWS #1: LOOKING AT CASE NUMBERS USING FLAWED PCR TESTING PCR tests, in their current form, are faulty and ineffective [9]. In Dec 2020, the World Health Organization confirmed what was known for months; that high cycle threshold PCR tests result in a high amount of false positives and that testing labs around the world need to reduce their threshold values [10]. The US FDA has also warned of the risk of false positives from PCR tests [8].
It is important for everyone to understand what a Polymerase Chain Reaction test does. A PCR test is looking for RNA, which is a small particle of any cell (just like DNA). In this case, we are looking for the coronavirus RNA.
The amount of RNA in a saliva/nasal swab is very small, so PCR tests amplify the sample to help detect it. Each cycle doubles the material. One becomes two. In the next cycle, two is amplified to four, and so on. In Canada, and most of the world, specimens are amplified to a minimum value of at least 35 cycle thresholds (Ct). That creates over 17 billion copies of the material, enough to be able to detect any viral particle.
However, a Canadian National Microbiology study stated that specimens with Ct values greater than 24 were found to be viral culture negative [11]. What does this mean?
That if RNA is found at a Ct value of 35, the virus cannot be cultured. It cannot be grown. Because it is DEAD. The RNA is simply a remnant of a past COVID infection. A FALSE POSITIVE CASE. This case does not reflect an active infection nor is it contagious. That person was infected weeks or months ago.
This has been known irrefutable scientific fact for months: PCR tests are not reliable unless we REDUCE Ct values. Why are we creating worldwide mitigation policies based on this?
Lastly, and most importantly, using number of cases for policy making does not reflect the bigger picture. Someone with little or no symptoms of illness is NOT a case.
Instead, our main concern should this: How many of those cases are getting HOSPITALIZED and who is DYING?
THE BAD NEWS #2: LONG COVID Long term effects of COVID; persistent symptoms such as fatigue, headaches, respiratory, brain and heart issues can continue for weeks and months for some COVID cases. While there is still more research to be done, here is what we know so far.
King’s College London and the UK National Health Service have compiled the largest data set on this topic, using information from 4182 confirmed COVID cases [12]. Here was the breakdown of how many experienced long COVID, by duration of symptoms. The study also states that these numbers were comparable to Sweden and USA.
- 4 weeks: 13.3% (1 out of 7 cases)
- 8 weeks: 4.5% (1 out of 20 cases)
- 12 weeks 2.6% (1 out of 50 cases)
The susceptibility to experience long COVID is increased by the following factors, but can occur in low proportions in healthy individuals as well:
- Increased age
- Severity of COVID infection (i.e. number of COVID symptoms experienced in the first week)
- Obesity
Long COVID is a definitely a concern, but it does not warrant ignoring the negative long-term health effects of a lockdown.
BAD NEWS# 3: LOCKDOWNS DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD If you believe that a lockdown puts life and health ahead of the economy, you have been gravely misled. Lockdowns kill and destroy more lives than save lives.
The World Health Organization themselves do not advocate for lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus [13].
The first and very comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of a lockdown in Canada was performed by Dr. Ari Jaffe, an infectious disease expert, who initially supported lockdowns but is now a strong opponent. His study concluded that the lockdowns in Canada will result in 10 statistical lives lost for every 1 COVID life saved [14].
Reasons for these lockdown deaths is due to restricted medical care such as
- delay of elective surgeries
- undiagnosed heart and cancer patients
- lack of accessible treatment for current patients
Moreover, the following repercussions of a lockdown are also not taken into account. All of these have a negative impact on life expectancy and illness.
- Mental Health
- Social Isolation (top 3 predictor of heart disease)
- Suicides
- Domestic Abuse
- Drug Abuse and Alcoholism
- Poverty and accompanying Malnutrition/Starvation
- Children’s Education and Childhood Trauma
The Canadian Mental Health Association concluded a study on all of the above, with 3027 participants Canada wide [15]. Here are some highlights:
- 10% experienced recent thoughts or feelings of suicide (up from 2.5% pre-pandemic).
- 40% have had their mental health decline during the pandemic
- 27% are worried about putting food on the table
- 18% report fearing physical and mental abuse while trapped at home
- Ontario experienced a 38% increase in drug overdose deaths during the 15 weeks of the first wave lockdown[36]
A Canadian Psychiatric Research report has projected an increase of between 418-2114 excess suicides in Canada (depending on 1.6% to 10.7% increase in unemployment) [16].
Lastly, lockdowns are causing our general health and immunity to be being lowered. We are locked down at home, with increasing mental health issues, stress, lack of sunlight and lack of exercise. This further lowers our bodies’ response to any sort of infection, including COVID.
Using lockdowns, we have only looked at short term gratification, while disregarding long term destruction.
BAD NEWS #4: HOSPITAL OVERCAPACITY The ideal measure to avoid a lockdown is to increase hospital capacity as much as possible.
Unfortunately, hospital space and staff shortages have always been a problem, even before the pandemic [17]. Every flu season in the last 3 years has had hospitals running at over capacity. Don’t let COVID distract you from the historical failures of the government.
This may sound ludicrous, but a simple online search will prove it. Here are a few news articles from previous years addressing that concern:
Dec 2017:
https://bit.ly/38wEqwn Feb 2018:
https://bit.ly/2M5dIU4 Jan 2020:
https://bit.ly/3nZ5laR Canada, despite being one of the biggest spenders for health care, sits far behind for services provided. As of 2019, out of 28 developed countries, here is how Canada ranked [18]:
- Doctors: 26th (2.8 doctors per 1000 people)
- Hospital Beds: 26th (2 beds per 1000 people)
Between Mar 15-Jun 13, 2020 (the first lockdown), the Ontario surgical backlog had an average increase of a whopping 11413 surgeries per week.
This led to a total of 150000 backlogged surgeries, which is estimated to take 84 weeks to clear (almost 1.5 years) [19].
We were completely unprepared for additional medical concerns, let alone a pandemic. Why has the government not addressed the hospital capacity issue? This is the most IMPORTANT factor in avoiding a lockdown.
Why is the public paying the price for government inadequacy? BAD NEWS #5: CANADA’S ECONOMIC SITUATION Socio-economic factors are the greatest indicator for the health of the population. Lack of finances do affect mental health, physical health and life expectancy. Look at any third-world country. Look at the impoverished demographic of any population set.
Canadian Annual Deficit: 2019: $19.8 Billion [20] Projected for March 2021: $381.6 to $398.7 Billion [21] This is an increase in deficit of almost 2000%. THIS IS REAL. This is NOT a typo. Imagine your $20,000 student loan becoming $398,000. By far, this is the HIGHEST deficit in Canadian history.
Within the last year, Canada has had the worst increase in Debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, which has risen by 80% [22]. We have spent the most amount of money in proportion to what our economy generates.
Our Minister of Finance resigned during the summer. A day after the Fall Economic statement was released on Nov 30, 2020, our Deputy Minister of Finance also resigned.
Our current Minister of Finance has no background in this field. Watch this video of her in Parliament:
https://fb.watch/23ypw_Ru1_/ The following industries have been devastated: Aviation, Tourism, Entertainment, Hospitality, Restaurants, Fitness, Retail
Our official unemployment rate in October 2020 was listed at 8.9% [23]. This is deceiving. This is artificially held low by government subsidies and by ridiculous requirements to be considered “unemployed”.
The true unemployment number could be as high as 30%, if not more [24]. That means a staggering 10 million Canadians unemployed.
218000 small-to-medium businesses are at risk of closing permanently [25]. That is 1 out of every 5 businesses. This was based on July 2020 data, before a second lockdown was announced, and is clearly much worse now.
On the other hand, large corporations are thriving. The price of a lockdown is not equally borne across the Canadian population.
We are all in the SAME storm, but not the SAME boat.
WHY IS THE GOVERNMENT STILL IMPLEMENTING SUCH DAMAGING POLICIES? This all started with a wildly incorrect and catastrophic model of COVID deaths by Dr. Neil Ferguson, from the Imperial College in the U.K. He projected that, unmitigated, COVID-19 would kill 326,000 in Canada this year [26]. Similar projections were made for other countries. Dr. Ferguson’s faulty projections, without being reviewed, led to a swift global lockdown and mass hysteria.
Using the Wuhan lockdown as a example, with a “75% reduction in interpersonal contact rates” however, he predicted deaths would fall to under 46,000 in Canada. Coming to the end of 2020, we are at approximately 15000 COVID related deaths in Canada [1]. While that is still a tragic number, it is nowhere close to what was predicted.
Dr. Ferguson has a history of incorrect modeling, apart from COVID. [26] [27]
- predicted 40000 COVID deaths in Sweden by May 2020, with no lockdown. By then, Sweden actual deaths were under 3000.
- 2002: predicted 150000 deaths from Mad Cow Disease. Actual toll was 2704.
- 2005: predicted 150 million people would be killed by the bird flu. Between 2003-2009, actual toll was 282.
- 2009: predicted swine flu could lead to 65000 U.K. deaths. Actual toll: 457 people.
In March 2020, Dr. Ferguson admitted that his COVID modeling was based on a 13-year old computer code that was intended for a “feared influenza pandemic”.
We shut down the world based on this? No one looked for a second opinion? His reckless advice set a dangerous precedent for lockdown policies and abuse of human and constitutional rights.
If the government realized and changed their approach now, it would essentially mean admitting they are wrong. (Personally, I feel they have succumbed to tunnel vision).
How can they reverse course without getting politically skewered for going all in on what is now by far the largest public spending campaign ever, the most significant restriction on free society ever and the greatest peacetime damage ever inflicted on a generation, socially and economically, in modern history when it turns out it didn't make much of a difference? (Credit: Josh Kocher)
Instead, politicians have used the new “science” of DEMAGOGY -
political activity or practices that seek support by appealing to the desires, prejudices and emotions of ordinary people rather than by using rational argument. Implement measures that make us FEEL safe instead of what is ACTUALLY safe. With only COVID in the spotlight, actions are based on “optics”. As long as COVID lives are down, why bother with the collateral damage from a lockdown and its accompanying non-COVID deaths? Politicians don’t have to wipe that blood off their hands. Ignorance is bliss. Let’s save 1 COVID life that is in the public eye, but it will cost 10 lives down the road, not in the public eye. This is known as the Corona Dilemma (see attached pictures) [14].
If we had always put health ahead of the economy, here’s what would have happened a long time ago.
- Alcohol would be banned
- Tobacco would be banned (21918 deaths/day globally) [14]
- Highly processed and fried foods would be banned
- MORE climate change and air pollution prevention measures would be put in place.
- Driving would be banned (3699 deaths/day globally) [14]
- We would instill a lockdown during every flu season to conserve hospital capacity. NOTE: 230000-650000 people die globally of the common flu every year [28].
Doing the above would save millions of lives globally. But we accept those risks despite high fatality numbers, in order to stimulate the economy. We leave the decisions to drive cars, consume alcohol, eat fried foods and smoke in the hands of the people. (Yes, they are not CONTAGIOUS so it’s a different form of threat, but a death is a death, specially if it is statistically preventable).
Another important point to consider is that politicians are making decisions while being completely protected from the consequences of their decisions. Their salary stays the same and their large pensions fully protected. This is a position of PRIVILEGE.
WHY IS THE PUBLIC SUPPORTING THESE POLICIES? For the general public, there are many working from home with pay. They have little to lose with a lockdown, so it is easy to support it. Again, a position of privilege. They are unaware of our country’s disastrous economic situation or the dangerous effects of a lockdown.
But more importantly, public support is being driven by mass hysteria; from the fear-mongering and sensationalizing of news by irresponsible journalism and incompetent politicians.
QUESTIONS FOR THE GOVERNMENT QUESTION: Why are high cycle threshold PCR tests still being used as the lone source for creating broad policies, despite their known inaccuracy and unsuitability? Can we stop with the constant regurgitating of daily case numbers?
QUESTION: Why are long term care facilities still experiencing COVID related deaths and not being protected better?
QUESTION: Why is the rest of Canada shut down when a distinct majority of the COVID related deaths are occurring in long term care homes, in age groups of 70+ and persons with co-morbidities?
QUESTION: Why do thousands of small businesses have to suffer when there is no proof that they are responsible for COVID transmissions?
Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table [29]: Restaurants, bars and clubs were the source of 0.7% of all COVID transmissions in Ontario. In fact, 58% of COVID cases do not know how and where the person was infected. The primary known source, close contact, adds up to 45% of Ontario COVID transmissions [29]. This means an unmasked setting for a prolonged period near someone close to you.
Have we seen Walmart and Costco take the contact information of every customer that enters the premises? No tracing = no cases = let them stay open.
Our politicians are blindly flailing at theories and superstitions to control this virus. How can a politician rob someone of their entire livelihood based on a hunch?
QUESTION: What is considered essential? Who decides this? Why is the LCBO (alcohol store ) open but gyms are not? To every person who is about to lose their job or business, is that not considered ESSENTIAL?
QUESTION: Why is a cost-benefit-result analysis not mentioned in any government policy? QUESTION: Why has the government not put out a simple disclaimer to increase our Vitamin D3 intake, especially during the winter months? This one measure can possibly yield the MOST result with LEAST effort and collateral damage.
QUESTION: Why has the government not volunteered to take a pay cut, given that most of the population is suffering economically? Don’t CEOs take a pay cut when their company is in financial trouble?
NOTE: The New Zealand PM and her ministers took a 6-month 20% pay cut in April 2020 [30].
SIDENOTE: A Canadian MP who only holds 6 years in office gets a lifelong pension. Even a war veteran does not get this benefit [31]
QUESTION: Why are these policies being made behind closed doors? The Ontario government has abused its arbitrary emergency powers to make policies without the input of ALL members of Parliament. When did we give up democracy? Watch The Ontario Government Being Questioned About This In Parliament:
https://fb.watch/22j-hpTDiL/ Why have those affected financially not been given a choice? If someone has to worry about putting food on the table and a roof over their head, they should have the right to go out and make a living. Let them decide for themselves whether they are willing to risk contracting COVID (a disease with a lethality rate of under 1% for the younger healthy working population).
QUESTION: Why is every international arrival subject to an archaic 14-day quarantine, when the Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Tam herself has said that there is little - if any - evidence of COVID transmission aboard aircraft? [32]
COVID transmission through travel primarily occurred BEFORE mitigation measures were implemented. Now, it is one of the safest public places you can be in.
As of Jan 2, 2020, travel has only accounted for 2.5% of all COVID cases in Canada (with a known exposure setting). Most of these travel related cases are from early in the pandemic, before restrictions were placed [1].
Read the following fact-based article: The Irrational Fear Around Air Travel Needs To Stop (And We Need To Use Science Based Measures Instead): https://bit.ly/3rnS3GT Why is rapid testing not conducted on arriving passengers? Results from the McMaster Health Lab rapid test study at Toronto Pearson airport:
99.7% were cleared or detected for COVID on arrival [34].
QUESTION: If someone got COVID and has recovered, they have built natural immunity. Why do they need to be vaccinated?
DOCTORS AROUND THE WORLD ARE SPEAKING OUT Great Barrington Declaration:
https://gbdeclaration.org World Doctors Alliance: Letter to Citizens and Governments of the World:
https://worlddoctorsalliance.com MOVING FORWARD: WHAT DO WE DO NOW? We have had 11 months to prepare and learn more. A lot is still unknown about COVID but A LOT IS KNOWN.
COVID is here now and we cannot stop it; that’s the harsh truth. Risk and harm cannot be completely eliminated. COVID will affect some people; that is unavoidable. It cannot be the SOLE reason behind making broad policies.
COVID is a harmful virus but not the killer virus it was projected to be.
There is a fine line between learning to live with COVID vs paralyzing our lives due to COVID, which we crossed a long time ago. Why are we hiding from COVID when we should use our knowledge to fight against it? Let’s stop the shortsighted and reactionary decision making.
We are we so focused on “number of cases and infections”? The test results are not reliable, and infections pose little or no harm to most of the younger healthy population. The important data is “number of hospitalizations and deaths”. In other words, shift our energy from “how do we limit COVID SPREAD?” to “how do we limit COVID DAMAGE?”
The long-term health and financial effects of a lockdown need to be considered. A lockdown will only transfer lives lost and destroyed. It will not save the overall excess deaths to a population. In fact, it will increase them in the long term.
The ONLY way out of this pandemic is through herd immunity, either naturally or through a vaccine. That vaccine is at least more than a year away for most people (another governmental failure). Moreover, there are many who will choose not to take a vaccine (personally, I will take it). We cannot have another 6 months of lockdowns. Every single day adds incredible amounts of short and long term damage.
A SUMMARY OF WHAT SHOULD BE DONE: (Edit) Firstly, we should continue precautions to limit COVID spread. These are mitigation measures that
may yield results without collateral damage: masks, wash hands frequently, don’t touch your face, reasonably limit social interactions.
I hope it’s clear: the problem isn’t number of cases. It’s the number of deaths and number of hospitalizations.
We know one thing for sure: Lockdowns should be our absolute last measure and that they will still come at a serious cost to society. Lockdowns are a REACTIVE measure to avoid getting hospitals overloaded.
Our most helpful measure to avoid a lockdown would have been to increase hospital capacity, but the government has failed us there.
Moreover, implement the actions below:
- Offer Focused Protection for the following: long term care homes, the vulnerable population and those that have UNAVOIDABLE interaction with them. The measure alone may reduce COVID related deaths by 90+%. Even if the above demographic is half of the Canadian population, at least the other half don’t need to be locked down.
- Let everyone else live normally, if they CHOOSE (of course, with cautionary measures)
- Promote a healthy lifestyle, nutritious diet and increase Vitamin D intake for EVERYONE. This alone may reduce the number of hospitalizations, severe cases and long COVID.
- BONUS MEASURE: All politicians need to take a pay cut. Sign the following petition: https://www.truenorthinitiative.com/politicians_need_to_cut_their_salaries
LET ME BE CLEAR. This is not about Lives VS. Economy. Health policy has been mistakenly sold as such. The truth is that a Focused Protection approach will save more lives and protect the economy. It’s a win-win.
This is about using everything we know to have an all-inclusive approach and look at the bigger long-term picture. To make decisions using science, data and logic, as opposed to fear and emotion.
Enough damage has been done. Don’t make the CURE worse than the virus. Don’t let political agendas get in the way of real help.
Free discourse is important because it helps to prevent bad ideas from blossoming and spreading.
We cannot simply accept the first viewpoint presented to us. Science requires many different points of view, rigorously tested, before arriving to a conclusion [35]. Science DEMANDS opposing opinions. Propaganda, on the other hand, silences it.
Something is VERY wrong when there is massive blowback to any questioning of the narrative. Something is VERY wrong when fear has become a virtue and courage a vice [35].
Something is VERY wrong when law enforcement questions the government about why they are forced to abandon their oath to the Charter Of Rights & Freedoms. Read their letter: https://bit.ly/3nW0Mhu
Please copy, paste or share this message if you agree.
SHARE ORIGINAL FACEBOOK POST: https://bit.ly/2IRbRRC
Samad Kadri
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
REFERENCES
[1] https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... s.html#fn1
[2] https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/more-than ... -1.5162396
[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z
[4] https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... n-d-supply
[5] https://www.nutraingredients.com/Articl ... in-D-alarm
[6] https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/11/03/ ... s-improve/
[7] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3
[8] https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/saf ... RHTwitterD
[9] https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/
[10] https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-202 ... -ivd-users
[11] https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/10/2663/5842165
[12] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20214494v2
[13] https://www.narcity.com/en-ca/news/lock ... rol-method
[14] https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/20 ... 2/download
[15] https://cmha.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020 ... NAL-EN.pdf
[16] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 8120310386
[17] https://globalnews.ca/news/7464926/coro ... -capacity/
[18] https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/d ... mary_0.pdf
[19] https://www.cmaj.ca/content/192/44/E1347
[20] https://www.budget.gc.ca/2019/docs/plan/toc-tdm-en.html
[21] https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal ... -1.5209807
[22] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/ ... dp-covid19
[23] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-q ... 6a-eng.htm
[24] https://www.thestar.com/business/opinio ... ke-30.html
[25] https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/sites/default/ ... losing.pdf
[26] https://www.iedm.org/the-flawed-covid-1 ... wn-canada/
[27] https://www.nationalreview.com/cornep ... grace/amp/
[28] https://www.health.com/condition/cold-f ... every-year
[29] https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/1 ... tario.html
[30] https://globalnews.ca/news/6820459/jaci ... s-pay-cut/
[31] https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board ... -plan.html
[32] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid- ... -1.5797065
[33] https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data.html
[34] https://mcmasterhealthlabs.ca/pdf/MHL%2 ... Tr6W2NgSCw
[35] https://financialpost.com/opinion/2020- ... he-science
[36] https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/o/2020/opioid-mortality-covid-surveillance-report.pdf?la=en
Travellers arriving in the UK will be able to cut their self-isolation period from 14 to 5 days starting next month if they test negative for the coronavirus. If you’re coming from a country that is not on the banned travel list, you will need to quarantine at home for 10 days. ... These rules are for UK residents and all visitors coming into England. 5-day quarantine for travellers arriving in UK. According to the current rules, people travelling to England from a country listed on the government’s ‘travel corridor list’ do not need to self-isolate (check the ‘travel corridor list’ here), while all travellers arriving in the UK from a country not on the list had to self-isolate for two weeks. Starting from December 15 a new policy will apply to travel. Everyone arriving in the UK will now have to take two coronavirus tests while quarantining. It's one of a growing number of rules aimed at stopping the spread of new, potentially more resistant ... New 5 days Quarantine Rules – 25th Nov 2020. Travelers reaching UK after 15th December will now be allowed to choose to either self-isolate for 5 or 14 days. Before we get excited about being able to come out of quarantine quickly, let’s consider a few things.. Health 5 day quarantine: how travellers returning to England can shorten Covid isolation period - and how to get a private test The transport secretary announced that the new rules will come into ... In a recent COVID-19 travel update, England has announced to cut its quarantine period to five days for those who test negative after the 5-day isolation period. The quarantine period upon arrival to the UK could be to a minimum of five days. This will be accomplished thanks to a new “test to release” regime which will be in place from 15 December. As was first announced a few weeks ago, as of November 15, 2020, England will be introducing a “test and release” scheme (yes, this is specific to England, while the reduction of the quarantine from 14 to 10 days is in all of the UK). With this new policy: Travelers will instead be able to self-quarantine for five days Under new rule travellers have to quarantine for five days before being tested; If the test result is negative they will be released from isolation immediately
